Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 16, 2002

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 PM PDT TUE JUL 16 2002

CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS FIRED EARLIER THAN YTDY ACROSS CNTRL
NV AND ALSO A BIT STRONGER. ALONG THE UTAH AND IDAHO BORDERS...DENSE
CLOUD COVER HAS HELD BACK TEMPS AND INSTABILITY BUT STILL EXPECT AT
LEAST ISOLATED IF NOT SCT COVERAGE HERE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL
BE WET...WITH EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME DRYING TO OCCUR WITH SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM NR 130W
APPROACHES THE AREA. AVN INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE BEST AND BELIEVE IT
HAS A BETTER HANDLE ALBEIT A LITTLE STRONG. STILL...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT EXCEPT ON MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH MOISTURE BLEND AS AVN HAS
A WET BIAS AND ETA/MESO HAS BEEN TOO DRY OF LATE.

EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION AT BEST NORTH TOMORROW WITH THE
DRYING...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A COUPLE
STORMS. ALONG HIGHWAY 50...EXPECT DRYING AS WELL...BUT WITH SOME
MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE PER ETA/META WILL GO LOW END CHANCE.
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY...BUT DYNAMICS FROM S/W ALSO ON THE
INCREASE. JET IN FAVORABLE POSITION BEGINNING 00Z THU AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. BOTH AVN/META SHOW RRQ OF 50KT H25
JET AND POSSIBILITY OF COUPLING WITH ANOTHER 50KT STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE WAVE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE PER AVN/META
THUS WILL GO 40 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH INCREASED DYNAMICS AND
NOT USE ANY TEMPORAL WORDING.

ON THURS...TROUGH CLOSER IN CA CNTRL VALLEY BUT DYNAMICS ARE OUT OF
THE AREA. THUS...WILL HAVE TO RELY ON TERRAIN TO SPARK STORMS...BUT
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT IS BEST. WILL GO LOW CHC ATTM WITH USUAL
DIURNAL FOCUS OF AFTERNOON IN MOST ZONES. WED NIGHT AND THURS MAY
BE OUR BEST SHOT AT ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR AWHILE. THURS NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...DRYING SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK. THUS WILL TAPER TO SLIGHT CHC ALL ZONES AS MODELS CAN BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH DRYING.

EXTENDED...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE HIGH
BUILDING BACK TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. SOME (GEM/EURO) EVEN SHOW
WEAK UPPER LOW OFF CA COAST BY SUN WITH GOOD SLY TO SELY FLOW
BEGINNING AGAIN. STILL...DRYING DOES TAKE PLACE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN. HOWEVER WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW CURRENT EXTENDED PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH DRY
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE THIS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEARER.

.EKO...NONE

WALLMANN