Hail in Nebraska, July 21, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH
NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A BREAK IN THE VERY HOT
CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TNGT. POST FRONTAL RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY UVV FROM TRALING SHORTWAVE MODELS
MOVE THROUGH AREA TNGT. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
FEW TSTMS LINGERING IN SE NEB AND SW IA MON MRNG. THEN MAINLY DRY
MONDAY AFTN THRU TUE. MANY TEMPS BEHIND FNT HOLDING IN THE 70S WITH
CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION. AFTER MRNG CLOUDINESS SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS DVLP MON AFTN. STILL SOME AREAS ON NE NEB AND W CNTRL IA
MAY NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 FOR HIGHS ON MON AFTER FALLING BACK INTO
60S TNGT. OTHERWISE BELIEVE LOWER AND MID 80S WILL COVER MOST MAX
TEMPS MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVLOP LATE TUE NITE
OR MORE LIKELY WED AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES OVER TOP OF RIDGE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE AS TO RISK
AND TIMING OF ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS DECREASES WITH
TIME INTO EXTENDED PERIODS. SHORTWAVE AVN DEVLOPES WY/NRN CO AREA AT
25/06Z SUSPECT ALONG WITH  DEEPING LOWER LEVEL LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE
A RATHER CONSISTENT PROBLEM WITH AVN THIS SUMMER SEASON. FOR NOW
WILL DISREGARD THIS AND KEEP THU MAINLY DRY AND RETAIN CHANCES FOR
TSTMS ON FRI AND SAT. BASED ON MRF WILL TOWARD MAINLY DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME ON SUN DAY 7.

.OMA...NONE

WIESE

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-212230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND OVER THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS IT WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
SIOUX CITY.  THE
FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON EXPECTED INSTABILITY ONCE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES START TO COOL AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
GENERATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
BAKE IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON.  A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS WHERE HEAT
INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 105 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATIC
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/OAX OR AT WEATHER.GOV (LOWER CASE).

GW