Hail in Nebraska, August 24, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
251 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2002

...CHANCES FOR NIGHT TIME RAIN NEXT FEW DAYS THE QUESTION FOR THIS
CYCLE...

MCS HAS ABOUT MADE IT OUT OF THE CWA LEAVING A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN
MOST AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER 5 INCHES WITH STREET
FLOODING REPORTED AROUND LEXINGTON THIS MORNING.  EXCEPTIONS WERE
FROM GRI/HSI EAST AS WELL KS PART OF CWA WHERE AMOUNTS WERE
MINIMAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA WITH VARIOUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC FRONT OUT OF
PICTURE FOR US AS IT IS SITTING ACROSS SOUTHERN OK. DEWPOINTS IN MID
60S ACROSS AREA. CLEARING TO THE WEST AS PER VISIBLE PICS AND LOOK
OUT THE WINDOW.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS MOST PROMINENT FEATURE WAS 250
JET WHICH WAS NOSING IN TO ERN CO AT 12Z.

FIRST QUESTION FOR US IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT. STABLE AIRMASS
BEHIND MCS BUT SHOULD HAVE PART OF AFTERNOON TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT WITH
CLEARING. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 80S IN THE WESTERN CWA. ETA
PROGGED JET POSITION WOULD KEEP US IN FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION.
HOWEVER...MODEL MAY BE OVERDOING JET A LITTLE ACCORDING TO PROFILER
AT 18Z AS PLT WINDS AT 250 MB WERE 85 KTS WHICH WAS ABOUT 15 KTS LESS
THAN PROGGED. 19Z WAS UP TO 90 KTS. FLOW BELOW THAT QUITE A BIT
WEAKER WITH 25 TO 30 KTS AT 500 MB AND 5 TO 10 KTS AT 700 MB. BEST
INSTABILITY PROGGED TO STAY SOUTHWEST OF AREA OVERNIGHT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER TOP OF US. THETA E RIDGE EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM ERN CO TO CENTRAL OK. AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DO NOT
SHOW THE IMPRESSIVE OMEGA VALUES AS IT DID FOR LAST NIGHTS STORM.
SEVERAL NEGATIVES IN PLACE...BUT WITH CONVECTION ALREADY GOING IN
PANHANDLE...UPPER JET POSITION...AND ASSORTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...
WILL GO WITH LOW POPS ALL AREAS.

WILL ALSO ADD CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN A LITTLE ALLOWING ANY SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION TO RIDE FURTHER EAST THAN ANY ACTION TONIGHT.

REST OF WEEK SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. IT DOES NOT APPEAR SURFACE FRONT
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT/WED WILL GET AS FAR SOUTH
AS EARLIER EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW.

.GID...NONE.

EWALD