Hail in Missouri, March 7, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 PM CST THU MAR 7 2002

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT RANGE CENTER ON PRECIP CHANCES
AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
TEMPERATURES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

19Z SURFACE DATA INDICATES WARM FRONT ROUGHLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
KANSAS CITY METRO TO JUST NORTH OF COLUMBIA.  MID 60S IN SEDALIA
CONTRAST NICELY WITH UPPER 40S IN LEES SUMMIT.  EXPECT FRONT TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING...THUS ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY NEED STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING WORDING
TONIGHT.  CLOUDS TO ALSO BE FICKLE...AND EXPECT AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO BECOME CLOUDY AGAIN
TOWARDS MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP STRATUS DECK AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  OVERALL WILL TREND ABOVE MAV/FWC NUMBERS TONIGHT MORE IN
LINE WITH GOING FORECAST.  BREEZY WORDING ALSO WARRANTED GIVEN
UPSTREAM TRENDS AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND RIDES UP THE FRONT
TONIGHT. BELIEVE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...ON THE NOSE OF 60 KT 850 MB
LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED BY THE FAVORED ETA MODEL.  THESE STORMS SHOULD
BE OUT OF MY FORECAST AREA BY MORNING THOUGH...SO WILL JUST THROW IN
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TOMORROW.  CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP THINGS IN CHECK FRIDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG
SOUTH WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BACK INTO EASTERN KANSAS.  AM CONCERNED ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE HAIL WITH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FT ASL.  SUPERCELLS APPEAR
FAVORABLE EARLY ON WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED BY THE ETA.
ETA DOES HIGHLIGHT THREAT DOWN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT BAND OF
EHI INDICES FROM 2 TO 3 INDICATIVE PERHAPS OF SECONDARY AREA OF
CONCERN FURTHER NORTH.  0-3 KM CAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH NIL...SO
WOULD NOT EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO BE TERRIBLY HIGH.  STORMS SHOULD
TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FASHION FAIRLY EARLY ON...AND THEN PRESS
EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE EVENING WITH ATTENDENT THREATS FOR HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.  WITH ALL SAID...WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MAY EVEN
CONTEMPLATE CARRYING SEVERE WORDING.  TEMPERATURES...WILL GO QUITE A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THERMAL RIDGE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...WITH LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TO MID 60S FAR NORTHWEST.

AS FRONT PLOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL DOWN.  WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CAA AND ANAFRONTAL
STRUCTURE OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST POST-FRONTAL LIFT.  LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THOUGH.  DEFINITELY WILL
HIGHLIGHT 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...
MID/UPR FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FM SUN-THU. SHUD SEE
RPD WARMUP ON SUN AFT A COOL START ON SWLY RETURN FLOW. WILL BUMP UP
SUN MAX TEMPS SVRL CATEGORIES. TIMING OF SHRTWV EMBDD WITHIN ZONAL
FLOW IN QUESTION. HWVR...ENOUGH AGREEMENT BTN MODELS TO ADD MENTION
OF -SHRA LT MON AFTN INTO TUE. NOT MUCH COOLG BHND SYS ASSOCD WITH
-SHRA SO WED TEMPS COOL TO ARND SEASONAL NORMS. AGREE WITH HPC EXTDD
DISC AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WRM WELL INTO THE 50S ON THU.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

MH/MJ

945 AM...
NEW FORECAST GRIDS...WORDS AND RDF FORTHCOMING TO ACCOUNT FOR
STRATUS/FOG THAT HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATED STRATUS DECK SLOWLY ERODING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT ADDITIONAL STRATUS WORKING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD HANG TOUGH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  WITH SHALLOW
TRAPPING INVERSION WILL ALSO SEE CONTINUANCE OF FOG UNTIL AROUND
18Z.  FOG LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

FOG/STRATUS EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES ALSO A CONCERN.  FOR NOW WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

HUDSON

455 AM...
MAIN FCST CONCERN PRECIP CHCS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW AN ETA/AVN BLEND. SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT STRATUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. LATHROP PROFILER SHOWING 10-15KT SWLY WINDS AT 850MB.
SO WOULD EXPECT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH...THE LOW STRATUS WILL
ERODE. HOWEVER WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME. FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY.
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...FRI HIGHS WILL GET QUITE WARM. WILL BUMP
TEMPS UP A BIT FOR FRI.

STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH NOSE PUSHING INTO IA/MN/WI TONIGHT. THETA-E
AND LLJ AXIS IS OVERHEAD...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN TONIGHT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION. NORTHEAST SECTIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME OF THIS PRECIP. MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES INTO FRI. SFC AND
850MB LIFTED INDICES ARE FROM 0 TO -3...WITH CAPES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG BY FRI AFTERNOON...MAKING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AT THAT TIME. BUT UNLESS ANY OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES GET
PRECIP GOING...THE STORMS MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS. THINK THERE WILL BE A LINE OF TRW THAT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE
FRONT...SO WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY CAT FRI NIGHT.

MODEL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW. THINK
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST THOUGH. WILL THEREFORE
KEEP CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN...BUT NOT MEASURABLE. WILL ALSO KEEP
MENTION OF FLURRIES IN FOR SAT...BUT IT IS ON THE VERGE OF NOT BEING
WORTH MENTIONING.

THANKS FOR COORD...OMA/SGF.

NRR