Hail in Minnesota, May 8, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE DEALS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR TONIGHT...AND STRONG WINDS FOR THURSDAY.

AT 3 PM...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA.
BOTH THE ETA AND AVN MODELS HAVE THIS LOW POORLY INITIALIZED. THEY TEND
TO DEVELOP THE LOW OVER KANSAS AS THE MAIN LOW AND IGNORE THIS LOW.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE SURFACE DEW POINTS...THE NORTHERN LOW WILL BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THESE LOW PRESSURE AREAS. BY LOOKING AT THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS IT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE TWIN CITIES THIS EVENING. BREEZY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAVE INCREASED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. IN ADDITION...SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS CAUSED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND AROUND 80 IN NORTHEAST IOWA. SATELLITE SOUNDER DATA INDICATES
THAT THE LIFTED INDICES HAVE FALLEN TO -8 OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND
THE CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
FROM LOOKING AT THE BLUE RIVER PROFILER...THERE IS PLENTY OF SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT...I EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM INITIALLY AS SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO
BE LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND THEN
EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...THE AREA WILL SEE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE 1000 MB TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
MARGINAL FOR ADVECTING THE REALLY STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT...THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY
COULD GET. HOWEVER...THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY STILL BE
IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY AROUND 45 MPH. CONSIDERING ALL THAT
IS GOING ON TONIGHT...I DIDNT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...
BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY IF THE LAPSE RATES GET ANY
STEEPER.

.LSE...NONE.

BOYNE

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-090200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

HAZARD - SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

TIMING - FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LOCATION - NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION - A WARM FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH INTO MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN.  AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE.  LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE TURNED SUCH THAT CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.  CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS DEVELOPING IN AREA
OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  THE
MAIN THREAT OF THESE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS...HAIL...WIND
DAMAGE...ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A STRAIGHT LINE
WIND EVENT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN.

SPOTTER INFORMATION - SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

KRC