Flood in Kentucky, March 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 AM EST SUN MAR 17 2002

VERY ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS DEVIATE CONSIDERABLY BY THE 60 HR POINT AND THEN AGAIN IN THE
EXTENDED FCST TO MAKE MATTERS A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOW AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CLOSELY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. GOING TO HAVE TO START THINKING ABOUT FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES BEFORE LONG. RUNOFF IS ALREADY HIGH AND THEIR IS VERY LITTLE
TO NO VEGETATION YET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO BEEN A LITTLE
HEAVIER THAN QPFS HAVE BEEN GOING FOR. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A FLS
FOR A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING (URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM TYPE OF STUFF). MAY ISSUE A FFA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF SO OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

05Z SFC CHART SHOWING A VERY WAVY COLD FRONT ACROSS TN INTO VARIOUS
AREAS OF LOW PRESS OVER MS/LA/OK. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. 00Z 8H CHART SHOWING COLD DRY AIR OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY
AND WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE TN VALLEY. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS AND
TRENDS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FEW TSRA OVER TN AND KY MOVING
NE AND WELL INTO THE CWA ATTM. NOTED THAT THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN
MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL BATCHES OF PCPN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA...WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT TO THE NE...AND NUMEROUS VORT MAXES
TRANSVERSING TO THE NE.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE FIRST FEW PERIODS. CAT POPS
TODAY (AND TSRA) IS PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR TO THE NORTH AND HOW QUICKLY THE BNDRY TO OUR
SOUTH MOVES N. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT TEMP GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE
TODAY FROM N TO S. WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO AT LEAST THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS TO STAY UP AS WE GET INTO AND REMAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS ON MONDAY.

BIG DIFFERENCES (AND I MEAN HUGE) FROM THE 60 HR POINT ON BETWEEN
THE ETA/EXTENDED ETA VERSUS THE AVN SOLUTIONS. THE ETA MOVES THE
WARM FRONT/PCPN BY TUE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND REALLY CLOBBERS AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY TUE-WED. THE AVN SOLUTION KEEPS
THE BNDRY FURTHER SOUTH AND JUST HAMMERS KY WITH PCPN THRU THE
PERIOD. NOT SURE ATTM WHICH SOLUTION IS BETTER AND THINK A
COMPROMISE MAY BE THE SAFEST CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL KEEP
LIKELY MENTION GOING FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. NOT SURE ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER ABOUT LOW CHC POPS FOR WED.

PLAN ON LEAVING MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD (THUR-SAT) ALONE
ATTM. HOWEVER...NOTED HUGE 20C 8H TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MRF
AND ECMWF FOR THU-FRI-SAT. IM THINKING THE MRF IS TOO COLD-TYPICAL
BIAS...BUT THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO MILD. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS
LOOK WITH THE NEW MRF/MEX RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION ON KEEPING
RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THE ZONES.

AVN/NGM MOS LOOK CLOSE TODAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF TEMPS/POPS FOR THE
3RD AND 4TH PERIODS.

IFPS/GFE...PLAN ON MAINLY ROLLING THE DATA BASE AND JUST TWEAK DATA
AS NEEDED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

THANKS TO CRW/MRX/SDF FOR COORDINATION THIS MORNING.

LAST MINUTE NOTE...AFTER FURTHER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS...WE WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FFA FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OR SO OF
THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE WATCH FROM
APPROX JACKSON...OWSLEY...BREATHITT..MAGOFFIN...FLOYD AND PIKE
COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO MOVE THE LINE FURTHER NORTH AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT LATER ON.

.JKL...FFA FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HALL