Damaging Wind in Kentucky, July 20, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
243 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2002

...FORECAST ISSUES...
POP CHANCES THIS EVENING...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...AND FRONTAL TIMING AND PRECIP ON TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES.

...MODELS/ZFP...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE TROUGH 36 TO 42 HOURS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL SPELL OUT AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR KSME THIS MORNING
PRODUCED A LARGE COLD POOL THAT HAS SPREAD OUT NICELY ACROSS OUR SW
AREA KEEPING IT DRY FOR THE MOMENT.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO HAVE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  ATMOSPHERE
STILL QUITE UNSTABLE EVEN THOUGH DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER IN.
PLAN ON KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...BUT EVERYTHING SHOULD SETTLE DOWN ONCE THE SUN SETS.
PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LARGE RIDGE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL PRETTY MUCH CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...SO SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
HOT AND DRY WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 90. MOISTURE PROGGED TO RETURN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THIS
TIME PLAN ON MENTIONING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA DOWN
THERE...KEEPING IT DRY ACROSS THE NORTH.  NEXT WAVE COMES SCOOTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVN MODEL TRYING TO GET FRONT THROUGH HERE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.  NOT SO SURE THIS WILL HAPPEN JUST YET AS FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY WESTERLY ALOFT AND RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTH.  AT
ANYRATE...WITH MOISTURE BACK AS WELL AS INSTABILITY...WILL RUN POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS
AND FINE TUNE THIS FEATURE.

...EXTENDED...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.  EVEN THOUGH 1000-500 HPA MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY...PLAN ON KEEPING CLOUD COVER UP DURING THE DAY SINCE WE
NEVER CLEAR OUT FAST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGES.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP EASTERN KENTUCKY
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  NEXT H5 WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL ALSO BRING THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT WITH IT.  FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NUDGES CLOSER ON SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO GET HUNG
UP...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  AT ANY RATE...WILL RUN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL MEX NUMBERS A LITTLE COOL THIS GO AROUND.  PLAN ON
STAYING CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

...GRIDS...
FORECAST DATABASE IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY...DID THE USUAL RELOAD OF MESO
ETA IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS...MINOR TWEAKS DONE THOUGH THE SHORT TERM
PART.  IN THE EXTENDED...MINOR TWEAKS DONE TO ALL ELEMENTS.

...PRELIM NUMBERS

LOZ 67/90 68/91 2000
JKL 68/90 70/90 2000

.JKL...NONE

JARVIS

---------------------------------------------------------------------
SATURDAY MORNING DISCUSSION
320 AM....

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A SLOWLY SINKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTS
THESE TWO CURRENTLY LYING JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER...
YOU HAVE TO GO UP INTO MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SEE
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...LIKEWISE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT ALOFT FINALLY SHIFTING THE PESKY
UPPER LOW EAST TODAY AS THE WESTERLIES PUSH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH OFF
SHORE. WEAK RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE IT TOO
SUCCUMBS TO THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE JET STREAM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK WHILE
STRONG RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE WEAK FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH TODAY INTO A
JUICY AIR MASS THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRIER COLUMN OF AIR
WITH PWS DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WILL NOT LIMIT THE CHANCES TO
THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WILL PLACE LOWER POPS NORTH FOR THE WHOLE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHECK THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES. BY
THAT TIME...TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REMOISTEN AND AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS LOOK IN ORDER. WILL NOT BITE ON THE CLEAN FROPA
PORTRAYED IN THE AVN FOR MIDWEEK...YET. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES THANKS TO DRIER AIR AND FEWER CLOUDS
MORE NORMAL READINGS FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

NGM AND AVN MOS ARE SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. WILL USE A
BLEND. ON POPS...PREFER THE WETTER AVN FOR TODAY WITH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND DRY.

AS FOR GFE/IFPS: STANDARD LOAD OF MESOETA TEMPS/WINDS THROUGH 60
HOURS THEN TWEAKING OF THE REST...DRIER/CLEARER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

WORK ZONES AVAILABLE BEFORE TOO LONG UNDER THE AFOS PRODUCT
SDFOZFJKL.

PRELIMINARY CCF:
LOZ EB 085/067 090/068 090 311-2
JKL EB 084/069 090/070 090 4---1

.JKL...NONE.

GREIF

===================================================================
FRIDAY EVENING DISCUSSION
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

...FORECAST ISSUES...
CONTINUE TO HAVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION IN OHIO. THIS HANDLED WELL BY THE MESO ETA.
TOO MANY BOUNDARIES TO RULE OUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

FEEL THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. FOR NOW WILL NOT PLAN ON
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST.

.JKL...NONE.

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
515 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0514 PM    LONDON                    KY   .88 INCH HAIL
07/20/02   LAUREL                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

MFH