Damaging Wind in Kentucky, August 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

COLD FRONT POISED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ACROSS THE MO/IA BORDER
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN IL WILL MAKE A DEFINITIVE PUSH
SOUTHWARD TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING CONVECTION ON THE RADARS TO OUR NORTH IN AN AREA
WITH MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY. THE ONGOING FORECAST
SEEMS TO HAVE THINGS WELL IN HAND WHEN COMPARED WITH NEW MODEL
SUITE...WITH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP INTO OUR AREA TODAY...THE CURRENT DAY ONE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ALSO SEEM REASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. WITH REGARD TO POPS...WILL GO WITH A
50 OR 60 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AND A 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WILL
MAINTAIN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE 18Z THIS AFTERNOON TO 06Z OVERNIGHT.  FEEL
THAT THE SLOWER AVN HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...WHICH MEANS THAT THERE MAY STILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SDF...NONE.

VLD

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-191255-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
856 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

THE SEVERE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BOWLING GREEN TO LEXINGTON.

AT 9 AM THIS MORNING...A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT LOUIS TO SOUTH OF INDIANAPOLIS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS
MORNING...AND NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING IS PROGGED ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION.  STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTES TO
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM.  WIND
PROFILES OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT WEST
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE  WAKE OF A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  THIS MAY PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNDER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO MIX SOME OF THESE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

DENMAN

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-191255-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
856 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

THE SEVERE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BOWLING GREEN TO LEXINGTON.

AT 9 AM THIS MORNING...A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT LOUIS TO SOUTH OF INDIANAPOLIS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS
MORNING...AND NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING IS PROGGED ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION.  STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTES TO
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM.  WIND
PROFILES OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT WEST
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE  WAKE OF A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  THIS MAY PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNDER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO MIX SOME OF THESE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

DENMAN

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-191900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY EXISTS
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOWLING GREEN TO
LEXINGTON.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW
ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
PROFILES OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY INDICATE THAT WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS MAY PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNDER SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MIX THESE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SURFACE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.