Heavy Rain in Kentucky, August 1 to 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
830 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2002

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830 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2002

WILL DO UPDATE THIS EVENING...NOT FOR SKY COVER OR
TEMPERATURES...BUT TO GIVE BETTER TIMING TO ONSET OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.  WILL ALSO BE RESENDING CCF WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THURSDAY.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

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350 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2002

CURRENT PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGN OF CHANGING.  NEW FORECAST CONSISTANT
WITH OLD FORECAST.  AS WE REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WEST TO EAST UPPER
FLOW PATTERN DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL CHANGES OF AIR MASS...JUST
FRONTAL SYSTEM GETTING NEAR US FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND THEN
NOT REALLY PUSHING SOUTH.

THEREFORE NO SIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AAR/DB

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940 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2002

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.  NO REASON FOG WILL
NOT RETURN TO MOST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SO WILL ADD AREAS OF
FOG.  OTW NO CHANGES.

AAR

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330 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2002

SURFACE FRONT JUST ABOUT GONE.  THERE IS A WINDSHIFT BOUNDARY
EVIDENT JUST WEST OF THE OHIO...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS ON
EITHER SIDE.  SOME AC/SC IS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF
CWA...BUT SHRA ARE OVER.

WESTERLIES BEGIN TO TRUDGE NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS RIDGING NOSES
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST AS AVN
BUILDS A 597 DM HIGH AT H500 BY 120 HOURS.

WILL HAVE SOME MORNING CLOUD WORDING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
HOT WILL BE THE FORECAST.  WILL HOLD ON TO PARTLY SUNNY IN THE FAR
SOUTH AS A FEW MORE CU MAY FORM THAN TO THE NORTH.  ALSO WILL HAVE
LESS HUMID WORDING AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY DECREASE.  GOING ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF MOS TODAY.

CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT TONIGHT...ONLY LIGHT FOG EXPECTED AND WILL NOT
MENTION.  MOS BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.  ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY
ON THURSDAY...H850 TEMPS AROUND 19C SUGGEST AT LEAST LOWER 90S WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL HAVE A 90 TO 95 RANGE IN THE LOWLANDS...A
COUPLE OF CO-OPS COULD SEE THE HIGH END OF THAT RANGE.

TWEAKED THE CLOUD GRIDS LOWER ON FRIDAY WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.  AVN MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS NOW...DRAGGING A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY.  CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED BUT
LOOKING IFFIER EACH MODEL RUN.

QUICK LOOK AT NEW 240HR AVN RUN...IT HAS BACKED OFF OF THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IT FORECAST YESTERDAY...AND IN FACT IS BUILDING AN EVEN
STRONGER RIDGE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF.  NO
CHANGES BEYOND FRIDAY FOR NOW...BUT HIGHER TEMPS DAYS 5-7 MAY BE
WARRANTED AND WILL LET ISC CREW HASH IT OUT.

CL

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925 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2002
OVERNIGHT UPDATE...CONVECTION JUST ABOUT GONE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AND DECREASE SKY COVER
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WILL KEEP THE FOG DEVELOPING.  BELIEVE
EXTREMELY WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT WILL BE
DISSIPATING IN ANY EVENT OVERNIGHT.

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243 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2002

SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

WEAK FRONT THAT IS GOING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS STILL
TOUGH TO FIND.  HOWEVER...WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO HAVE BECOME
NWLY.  STILL NO REAL SIGN OF THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  THESE STORMS HAVE
GENERALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  12 UTC
MESOETA SHOWS THIS PRECIPITATION AS BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WHICH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND BY 06 UTC...THE FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.  CURRENT GRIDS SHOW THIS TREND AND WILL
ONLY MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

MODELS INDICATE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF DRIER AIR SUGGESTS THAT
MENTION OF FOG DEVELOPING IS STILL WARRANTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  MRF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH UPPER
RIDGE...AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH REGION THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND THEN BUILDS RIDGE BEHIND IT.  12Z AVN HAS GONE AWAY FROM ITS
FASTER SOLUTION OF BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MRNG AND IS NOW
MORE IN LINE WITH ETA/CANADIAN...BRINGING FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL THAT BEING SAID...LIKE THE IDEA OF FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SAT AND
THEN STALLING SOUTH OF AREA AS UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES.  HAVE CHANCE
POPS SAT AND SILENT 20 SUNDAY.  MOISTURE RETURNS BY MONDAY AND GOING
WITH AFTN/EVE TSRA MON/TUE...PER ISC CHAT.  MRF REALLY AMPLIFIES
UPPER FLOW MON/TUE DIGGING TROF IN EAST...BUT THIS IS FIRST RUN TO
SHOW THIS.  THEREFORE WILL BE GOING LOWER THAN MOS FOR AFTN TEMPS.
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED TEMPS LOOKS REASONABLE AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO.

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1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 30 2002

FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...IS HARD TO FIND ON THE LATEST SURFACE MAP.  CAN NOT REALLY
FIND A WIND SHIFT...TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OR DEW POINT GRADIENT THAT
COULD BE USED TO IDENTIFY THIS BOUNDARY.  BECAUSE OF THIS...NOT
REALLY SURE WHERE IT IS AND IF IT STILL EXISTS.

LATEST MESOETA GRAPHICS ON AWIPS INDICATE CURRENT PACKAGE IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK.  SO ONLY PLAN ON MAKING A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

JSH