Funnel Cloud in Kansas, September 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
205 PM CDT WED SEP 4 2002

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...THEN PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK...MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW.  DONT SEE MUCH
OF A REASON TO BUCK PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND ONLY WEAK IMPULSES
RIDING THROUGH.  WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SKY COVER...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY
WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS.

MODELS ARE TRYING TO SPIT OUT AT MOST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES TRACK THROUGH UPPER RIDGE.  HOWEVER TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP POINT TO KEEPING
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SETS UP.

THAT THREAT LOOKS TO COME IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME...ALLOWING WESTERN GULF UPPER WAVE TO DRIFT NORTH.  MODELS
USUALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DISCERNING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
SYSTEMS SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP NOT THAT
HIGH.  HOWEVER WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF AVN/MRF/ECMWF LEAD ME
TO BELIEVE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
THUS HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER
90S CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70.
WITH INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S
MONDAY...THEN ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.TOP...NONE

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