Drought in Kansas, December 1 to 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
200 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS AND TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW FOR SUNDAY. THINK THAT AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE CUT OFF
LOW OVER CA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR TO THE EAST. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, HAVE INCREASED HIGHS FOR SUNDAY TO
THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.

EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME MONDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ETA WAS IN THE
MIDDLE OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING BUT IS STILL ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS. MONDAYS HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ETA SINCE IT GENERALLY DOES
BETTER WITH THE COLD AIR. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. WITH NO CLEAR DYNAMIC FORCING
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AND QUESTIONS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

THE OVER ALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY, A REINFORCING CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AM A LITTLE SCEPTICAL OF GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S, SO KEPT THEM IN THE LOWER 30S THINKING THAT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MODERATE THE TEMP EXTREMES.

AM NOT REAL OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF FORECAST. AFTER FRONT PASSES MONDAY, DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
MAJOR SYSTEMS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER CA
SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THEN ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE
TOO DRY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.

HAVE HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUESDAY. HOWEVER, HAVE
LIMITED IT TO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER IS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND HAVE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR THE NEB STATE LINE. HAVE ALSO
LIMITED PRECIP TO JUST SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND -10C
THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AND RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

.TOP...NONE.

WOLTERS

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
301 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED.