Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
939 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

...UPDATED...
CNVTN CONTS TO PERCOLATE ALG THE OKLA BORDER TO THE SE OF WLD. THIS
WAS OCCURRING IN AREA OF LO LVL CNVGNC INVOF SFC STNRY FNT WHERE
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BNDRYS WERE ENHANCING LIFT. THE KICT 88D ALSO SHOWD
OUTFLOW BNDRY MOVG WWD ACRS BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTIES, AND SUSPECT A FEW
ISOLD STMS COULD DVLP TWD OR JUST S OF ICT THRU MDNGT.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN SHOW IS NOW DVLPG ACRS WRN KS THIS EVENING. SATL
AND THE 00Z UPR AIR/PROFILERS SHOWD UPR SPEED MAX BEGINNING TO
ACCELERATE EWD ACRS UT/WRN CO. THE UPR FLO WAS BCMG INCRSGLY DIFLUENT
ACRS ERN CO/WRN KS THIS EVENING, WITH STMS BLOSSOMING ACRS NWRN KS.
XPCT CNVTN TO CONT TO DVLP ALG ELEVATED FNT ACRS WRN KS, IN AREA OF
GREATEST H8-H7 THETA-E ADVCTN. STMS SHOULD CONT TO DVLP ESEWD ALG
ELEVATED THETA GRADIENT TWD CNTRL/SCNTRL KS LATER TNGT. MAY TWEAK
POPS UP TO LKLY CAT IN NWRN SXNS FOR STMS ARRIVING IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME. XPCT MINOR TWEAKS TO REST OF FCST OVRNGT.

WL TAKE A LOOK AT NEW DATA AFT UPDATE, AND PERHAPS AMEND HWO BASED
ON AVBL DATA FOR THE SAT MRNG TIME PERIOD.

DARMOFAL

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1050 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

AT LATE EVENING, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND EXTENDED INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST
OVERNIGHT, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
COLORADO.

THE INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER
3 OR 4 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
STILL CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS THEY AFFECT AREAS
WEST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WINDS
TO 60 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS,
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAWN. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

KED

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241001-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1051 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

AT LATE EVENING, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND EXTENDED INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST
OVERNIGHT, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
COLORADO.

THE INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER
3 OR 4 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
STILL CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS THEY AFFECT AREAS
WEST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WINDS
TO 60 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS,
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAWN. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

KED