Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2002

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NWD TO NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER
THIS PM, AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS. VERY
UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.
THE SHORTWAVE WL RACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT, BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WL PUSH THE FRONTAL BNDRY BACK DOWN INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLD SFC-BASED STORMS MAY INITIATE
OVER FAR N-CNTRL/NERN KS THIS EVE, HOWEVER THOSE SHOULD MOVE NEWD.
AN MCS WL LIKELY FORM OVER SERN NEBRASKA ON NOSE OF 850 LLJ. CORFIDI
VECTORS/850-300 MEAN LYR WINDS SUGGEST EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MCS, THUS
NOT TO BE A THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE
OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS EVE. WITH TAIL
END OF UPR TROF GRAZING CNTRL KS OVERNIGHT, MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD
COOL SLIGHTLY. SO CONVECTION OVER NWRN KS MAY TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL
KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AM. WL KEEP A 30 PCT CHC GOING THERE,
TAPERING TO NO POP MENTION IN SRN KS.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL. CHOSE THE ETA MAINLY BECAUSE
IT SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN MORE THAN THE NGM/AVN MONDAY WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON THE UPR PATTERN AND RECENT HISTORY OF PAST 2
FRONTS. ALL MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER, LESS FORMIDABLE 700
TEMPS/CAPPING INVERSION MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN KS.
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT WITH POOLING 70S DWPTS, WEAK
CAP, VEERING WIND PROFILES INDICATE A FEW SVR STORMS MAY INITIATE BY
LATE PM IN OUR FCST AREA. 0-6 KM WINDS INDICATE VERY SLOW EWD
MOVEMENT TO CELLS, AND WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS,
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO PSBL. WL KEEP POPS AT 30 PCT WITH
LACK OF UPR SUPPORT AND 10 TO 12C 700 TEMPS. WL ALSO KEEP 30 POPS
MON NIGHT FOR MAINLY EVENING, AS MODELS INDICATE LOW LVL JET WL
FOCUS ACTIVITY FURTHER N LATER ON. META SUGGESTS HIGHS OF MID 80S N
OF FRONT MONDAY, AND MID 90S S OF FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WL LIFT WELL N OF FCST AREA TUESDAY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUING. BLEND OF ETA/AVN 1000/850 THICKNESS
INDICATE AT LEAST LOW-MID 90S REASONABLE.

EXTENDED PERIOD WED-SUN:
MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATING WED-THURS
FM KS EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ECMWF/MRF AGREE THAT AN UPR RIDGE WL
DEVELOP/AMPLIFY FM THE PACIFIC NW INTO SWRN CANADA FRI-SAT WHILE AN
UPR TROF DIGS SEWD INTO ONTARIO AND THE GT LAKES. ECMWF IS SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO KS...BRINGING IT INTO ERN KS IN MORE OF A
BACK DOOR FASHION. THE MRF/UKMET SUGGEST THE FROPA FRI NIGHT.
CURRENT FCST LEANS TOWARD FRONTAL PSG FRI NIGHT AND WL KEEP THAT
IDEA ATTM. WOULD HAVE TO THINK THERE WOULD BE AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF
T-STORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT IF IT MAKES IT INTO OR THRU THE
FCST AREA.

FCSTID = 09
ICT   72  90  70  93 /  10  30  30  10
HUT   70  87  69  94 /  20  30  30  10
EWK   71  87  69  93 /  20  30  30  10
EQA   72  89  70  92 /  10  30  30  10
WLD   72  92  71  93 /   5  30  20  10
RSL   66  85  68  95 /  30  20  30  20
GBD   67  86  68  95 /  30  30  30  20
SLN   69  86  68  93 /  30  20  30  20
MPR   71  87  69  93 /  20  30  30  10
CFV   72  93  71  91 /   5  30  20  10
CNU   72  92  70  91 /  10  30  30  10
K88   72  90  70  90 /  10  30  30  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.