Hail in Kansas, August 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2002

DAYS 1-2...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAGGING THE HOT PLUME INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.
ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL PASS NORTH OF DDC, INTENSE SFC
HEATING NEAR HEAT LOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BREAK THE CAP. ANY
STORMS THAT FIRE WILL MOVE EAST/SE TOWARD GCK-HYS-DDC LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EXPAND
IN AREAL COVERAGE. WILL CARRY 60-70% POPS NORTH, 30-40 FOR DDC AND
10-20% FOR P28-LBL CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHTS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PUSH DOWN INTO NORTHERN OK BY NOON. 700MB
TEMPS WILL DROP ABOUT 3C BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. BUT THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO HEAT UP P28/LBL TO
THE AROUND 90, WITH 85 AT DDC AND 80-85 NORTH. ANY 100 DEGREES
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BDRY FROM SOUTH OF P28
TO LBL TO TRB BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
COOLER 700MB TEMPS. WILL CARRY 20% POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THERE.
LOW-LEVEL JET AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY INTERACT TO BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY NIGHT PER GOING FCST WITH 50%-60% POPS.
THINGS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED BY TUESDAY AS SW MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS ARGUES FOR RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND A PRECESSION OF MCSS ACROSS WESTERN KS. HIGHS
WILL BE VERY TRICKY AS OUTFLOW FROM NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL TEND TO
COOL THINGS OFF.

DAYS 3-7...

LATEST RUNS OF THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD MID WEEK.  WESTERLY
FLOW BACKS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID WEEK AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES IN.  AVN MODEL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS AS IT RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS VORT
MAXES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. PER THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. NOT
REAL CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME THAT THESE STORMS WOULD MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SO WILL LEAVE MID WEEK FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

LATER IN THE WEEK THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF IT AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND GO WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

FINCH/GERARD

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   66  86  68  93 /  30  20  50  10
GCK   64  86  65  93 /  50  20  50  10
EHA   64  91  65  94 /  30  20  50  10
LBL   65  91  67  94 /  20  20  50  10
HYS   64  85  68  90 /  60  10  40  10
P28   70  88  70  93 /  10  20  40  10

.DDC...NONE.