Hail in Kansas, August 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
233 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2002

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER END POPS.

AT 19Z, SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF SHALLOW BUT
STRONG COLD FRONT FROM A POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN SLN AND HUT
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF DHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER,
DRIER AIR IS MAYBE 50 MILES BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LINE, WITH DEW POINTS BELOW 50F FROM AROUND HLC TO
SPD. CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO BUILD FROM MHK TO DDC TO GUY AND
PROBABLY AN INDICATION OF THE ELEVATED FRONT LOCATION. WILL GO
WITH 20 POPS IN 7 SOUTHEAST MOST COUNTIES THIS EVENING, BUT DRY WITH
NO POPS ELSEWHERE. ELEVATED BASES AND DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG DOWN BURST WINDS, IF ANY STORMS GET GOING. ALOFT,
THERE IS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEST TO EAST
OVER AREA WHICH WILL COUNTER ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST NIGHT IN A WHILE, RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

AS TIME ADVANCES, THERE APPEARS TO BE A KINK IN THE ZONAL FLOW CROSS
JUST NORTH OF CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS CWA FRIDAY NIGHT, AND INSTEAD
MORE TO OUR NORTH. SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS EAST FRIDAY, THEN ALL
ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, BUT IF CAP IS BROKE, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ONE PARTICULAR STORM.

TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN ONE DAY FRIDAY, THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S BY SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2-5 DEGS WARMER THAN
TONIGHT.

FOR AN INTERESTING BIT OF CLIMATE/DROUGHT TRIVIA, SEE 011646Z
TOPRERDDC.

DAYS 3-7...
TODAYS MODELS, LIKE YESTERDAYS RUNS, PORTRAY THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. AS
WAS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK SEEMS TO BE THE ORDER OF THE DAY. WITH DRYLINE/TROF MEANDERING
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, CANT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WILL PLAN TO TRIM EARLY WEEK POPS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHER, WILL ALSO PLAN TO RAISE TEMPS THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   61  89  61  90 /   0   0   0  20
GCK   60  91  64  92 /  10  10  10  20
EHA   62  92  65  93 /  10   0   0  20
LBL   62  92  65  93 /  10   0   0  20
HYS   59  90  62  91 /   0  10  20  20
P28   63  96  65  97 /  20  20  20  20

.DDC...NONE.

BURKE/16