Damaging Wind in Kansas, April 16, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
120 PM MDT TUE APR 16 2002

CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND WINDS WED.

SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO HOWL ACROSS THE DRY CWA STIRRING UP
BLOWING DUST. MARGINAL/NEAR WIND ADVSY IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG KS/CO BORDER. COLD/COOL FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF LIMON TO
JUST NORHT OF BURLINGTON TO JUST SE OF NORTH PLATTE AT 18Z.
STRONGEST WINDS MY CWA IN COMPRESSION AREA JUST PRECEDING FRONT.
TEMPS MID 80S SOUTH OF FRONT TO MID 60S IN NRN YUMA CNTY.

AT INITIALIZATION PREFER ETA FIT TO UPPER AIR PICTURE OVER PLAINS
STATES...ALTHOUGH MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR THIS AREA. WILL GO WITH
ONGOING FCST WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FROM/LEAN TOWARDS ETA.

FRONT PASSES THROUGH CWA BY NIGHTFALL WITH WINDS DROPPING
CONSIDERABLY. BY MORNING WEAK HIGH TO NORTH ALREADY SHIFTING EAST
AND WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO DROP INTO MID 30S TO MID 40S.

WED SFC LOW AGAIN DEVELOPS UNDER WEAK S/W IN E WY/NW NE/SW SD WITH
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH E CO. SFC WINDS ONCE AGAIN RISE TO
WINDY LEVEL BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. MODELS SHOW DRY AIR
CONTINUES AND 85H TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY SO WILL GO
WITH/OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FWC GUID (WHICH IS HIGHER THAN OTHER
MODELS).

WINDS STAY IN 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WED NIGHT WITH MIXING AND KEEP
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. STILL MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLOW
COOLING THROUGH THU. HIGHS THU ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW WED
HIGHS AS WEAK CAA CONTINUES. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA
LATE THU WITH ASSOCIATED CLDS MOVING IN. THIS OCCURS AS DEEPENING
UPPER LOWS MOVE INTO UT WITH ASSOCIATED JET MOVING TO SOUTH OF CWA.
THEREAFTER MUCH COLDER AS THICKNESS DROP TO NORTH OF JET.

CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPS FRI ONLY
REACHING 40S TO LOWER 50S AS UPSLOPE BEGINS. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF
FRI PM THROUGH SAT AM IS BEST TIME FOR PRECIP (CHANCE POPS). WITH
THICKNESSES AS PROGGED COULD BE MIX OF LT RAIN AND SNOW IN CO PTNS
OF CWA.

CLDY AND COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH SAT INTO SUN AS POLAR HIGH
SLIDES SLOWLY SE TO SD AREA BY SAT NIGHT AND THEN EAST SUN. WARMUP
AND DRYING/CLEARING TO BEGIN MON AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE REPLACES
WEEKEND UPPER LOW. UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL AND SW OVERRUNNING CONTINUES
FRI INTO SUN SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE PRECIP DURING THIS PD. MRF AND
ECM IN AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW SITUATION (WITH ECM ACTUALLY STRONGER
THAN MRF)...SO COOL AND CLDY WEEKEND WITH CHANCE LT PRECIP SEEMS
LIKELY ATTM.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC