Damaging Wind in Indiana, August 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EST SUN AUG 18 2002

BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE POPS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAKENING CD FNT
CURRENTLY NEAR A KFWA-KSTL LINE STALLS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATER
TODAY. ALL MODELS ESPECIALLY AVN CURRENTLY OVERDOING PRECIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER NW MISSOURI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  UPPER AIR DOES NOT SHOW MUCH TO KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  ETA CAPES ONLY ABOUT 600-1000 J/KG.  BUT WITH
FNT STALLING ACROSS AREA LATER TODAY WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.

MODELS MOVE FNT NORTH TO NORTHERN INDIANA BY MONDAY AS A S/W MOVES TO
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN INDIANA.  ALL MODELS INDICATE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN CWA. AFTER S/W MOVES BY
FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING.  OTHER DRY WEATHER SHOULD
BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PER MRF.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER THAN MODELS THIS MORNING AND
THEY MAY BE A BIT WARMER ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF FWC/MAV TEMPS MOST OTHER PERIODS.

.IND...NONE.
JEH

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-181330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 AM EST SUN AUG 18 2002

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL HELP GENERATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HENDRICKSON