Damaging Winds in Illinois, August 21, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
142 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2002

SYNOPSIS...SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
LINGER FOR A DAY OR SO.  VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ALONG STIRRED UP
BY A COUPLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROMISES A PERIOD OF WET
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SITUATION SHAPING UP
ACROSS CWA NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SAGGING COOL FRONT INTO NORTHERN ILL LATE THUR MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. VERY WET AIRMASS NOW SPREADING INTO THE REGION WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE OVER 2.5 INCHES ON THUR.  THIS IS THE
UPPER RANGE OF VALUES FOR THESE LATITUDES AND SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS WHERE OR IF CELLS FORM AND ECHO-TRAIN.

AT THIS POINT TWO MAIN PERIODS APPEAR THE BEST FOR RAINFALL...LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MRNG THEN 24HRS LATER...THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.  BETWEEN ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE DISORGANIZED BUT NOT NIL.
CONVECTION ACROSS WISC INTO NRN IOWA WILL RE-ENFORCE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF IOWA THIS
EVENING WILL INTENSIFY AND BACK LOW LEVEL JET INTO THIS REGION.
WINCHESTER PROFILER ALREADY REFLECTS THIS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY SUNSET AND THIS EVENING AND SAG INTO
NRN ILL. COULD BE FEW APPRCHG SVR STORMS FAR NW SINCE WIND FIELD SO
STRONG BUT THOSE SHOULD COLLAPSE INTO RAIN EVENTS SOON. WITH RR QUAD
OF JET CORE EASING SOUTHWARD FULL VERTICAL CIRCULATION PROMISES SOME
WELL DEVELOPED AREAS OF R+.  SOILS OVER NRN ILL QUITE DRY THOUGH AND
SHOULD HANDLE 2-3 RAINS WHERE THEY OCCUR...IF NOT IN AN HOUR.

NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO SLIDE NEAR OR OVER NRN ILL THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.  AVN HAS THIS SYSTEM FURTHER N THAN ETA WITH A MUCH
BETTER INFLOW WIND FIELD. BY THAT TIME SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE S OF
I-80 BUT OVERALL DYNAMICS BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT SUGGEST ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIAL R+. THIS TIME SOILS MAY BE TOO WET AND THATS WHEN
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A CONCERN.  HOW RAPIDLY CONDS IMRPOVE
LATER FRIDAY INTO SAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT BY THEN SURFACE FNT
SHOULD BE WELL INTO OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD.

AFTER THIS SITUATION IS RESOLVED A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN STATES WILL STABILIZE GT LAKES REGIONS WITH RE-ENFORECED HIGH
PRESSURE AND NEAR AVE TEMPS.  MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO LOW WITH THE
POPS NEXT 48HRS ALONG WITH TEMPS BEING TOO HIGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER THE RAIN DROPS.  ESFCHI HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLOOD
POTENTIAL. MAY ISSUE PRODUCTS EARLY DUE TO POWER/GENERATOR SWITCHING.
KML

.CHI...NONE