Hail in Georgia, March 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
101 PM EST TUE MAR 12 2002

OVERVIEW: SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH MS WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
HAL/GA...WHERE MAIN SVR ACTIVITY IS IN UNSTABLE AIR. WEDGE OVER NE
GA...STABILIZING AIR THERE. UPPER LOW BACK OVER LA, SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA. MODELS PRETTY GOOD HANDLE IN SHORT TERM. MONITORING
SITU IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH AS TO HOW APPROACHING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
LOOKS LIKE ONLY POSSIBLE SVR CSG-MCN LINE AND SOUTH.

SHORT TERM:SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ENE TO OFF VA COAST BY WED PM. WARM
FRONT STNRY. CDFNT WILL ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO EAST GA BY WED
AM. PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST ALTER TONIGHT. THUS ONLY AM POPS IN E.
CLEARING WED. UPPER SYSTEM STACKED ABOVE SURFACE LOW. BRIEF COOLING
WITH LOW PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY RIDGING. SO OVER ALL LITTLE TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE OFF COAST THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES. WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.

EXTENDED:DOUBTS HERE DUE TO MODELS CHANGING FROM PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
TO A MORE STABLE WSW FLOW WITH RIPPLES IN IT. MRF NOT ACCEPTED.
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS SATURDAY WITH FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH/CENTRAL
GA AND STALLING...MOVES OUT SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS PROBLEMS BUT
APPEARS BEST FOR NOW. THIS RUN A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE , ADDING TO
MISGIVINGS. NO POPS MON/TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:GOOD SHORT TERM. LOW FRI AND BEYOND. MODELS ARE
NOT CONSISTENT WITHIN THEMSELVES OR FROM RUN TO RUN. THIS ALSO
STARTING TO BLEED INTO END ON AVN RUN AS IT HAS FLOPPED ON LAST DAY
SOLUTION.

FCSTID = 24

ATL  49 68 48 77 /  90 40 00 00
AHN  49 67 48 77 /  90 50 00 00
GVL  48 67 46 75 /  90 50 00 00
RMG  49 67 45 76 /  90 30 00 00
CSG  53 69 49 79 /  90 30 00 00
MCN  53 69 49 78 /  90 40 00 00

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
210 PM EST TUE MAR 12 2002

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE...AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
THE AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL
TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY. CAPE
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ADDITION TO OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN TO GRIFFIN TO DUBLIN AS AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST FROM ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EST TUE MAR 12 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING
ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS FROM LAGRANGE TO GRIFFIN TO JUST NORTH OF
AUGUSTA.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS FROM LAGRANGE ...TO
GRIFFIN...TO JUST NORTH OF AUGUSTA. THE OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT...AND THE SUNSHINE IS
PROVIDING SURFACE HEATING WHICH IS INCREASING THE INSTABILITY OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA. CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500
IN THIS AREA AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD KEEP ALERT TO THE LATEST
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.