Hail and Damaging Wind in Georgia, August 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EDT MON AUG 26 2002

OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TN WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND FILL NEXT 2-3
DAYS AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN EASTERLIES AND PUSH WEST ALONG GULF
COAST BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD WEST FROM BERMUDA BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL GENERATE A MODIFIED WEDGE FOR
US. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS OFF THE TROUGH
DEVELOPING AT 40-50N AND 30-40W ALONG WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE AT 40N
AND 150W.

ANY RAIN IS NEEDED RAIN AS DROUGHT HAS GOTTEN WORSE LAST 3-4 WEEKS.
SEVERE DROUGHT OVER MUCH OF CWA EXCEPT MODERATE IN NW. LAKE LANIER
HAS BEEN FALLING AT 1 TO 1.5 FT PER 2 WEEKS. LAKE LANIER IS AT 1062
FT AND READY TO DROP BELOW. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS CONTINUED TO BE
ISSUED EVERY 2 WEEKS ON TUESDAY UNDER WMO HEADER FGUS72 KFFC. NEXT
ONE IS DUE OUT TUE SEPT 3.

SHORT TERM: OLD BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL GA IS COMBINING WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF IT TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS INTO ALABAMA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH CAPES OF 1500 TO 3000...DEEP CONVECTION INDEX VALUES AROUND
36...SHOWALTER OF -3 TO -5...AND LI VALUES OF -2 TO -4 TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL NEAR
SEVERE LIMITS NEXT 2-6 HOURS AND WILL NOWCAST ZONES AND POPS FOR
FIRST PERIOD. LIGHTNING IS A PRIMARY THREAT...WITH ISOLATED WIND AND
HAIL.

AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES...PE VALUES DROP TO 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES
TUE INTO WED. THIS WILL YIELD POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. ETA/NGM/AVN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MEAN RH WILL DECREASE INTO 50-70
PERCENT RANGE AFTER THIS EVENING. WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT TUE INTO
WED...EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL ONLY TO 20-30 PERCENT...EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM. AS FOR TEMPS...850...T1 AND GRIDDED DATA
SUGGESTS TEMPS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 CENTRAL GA.
THIS SUPPORTS ETA MOS OVER NGM/AVN MOS THOUGH ALL ARE WITHIN
REASONABLE RANGE OF EACH OTHER.

EXTENDED: ECWMF IS STRONGER THAN UKMET/AVN IS PUSHING A GOOD
EASTERLY FLOW AND MODIFIED WEDGING INTO AREA BY FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. AFTER ISOLATED STORMS THU...AS UPPER LOW MOVES WEST FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH. EXPECT 50-80%
MRH FRI INTO SUN...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A HUMID EASTERLY
FLOW...BUT RAIN CHANCE BELOW 20% SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP ON SAT/SUN
OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS MODIFIED WEDGE BREAKS BY MONDAY AND A
LITTLE MORE HEATING...WILL GO WITH LOW POPS ON LABOR DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FCSTID = 14

ATL  71 87 69 87 /  30 30 20 20
AHN  68 85 67 85 /  30 30 20 20
GVL  68 85 66 83 /  30 30 20 20
RMG  66 90 67 88 /  30 30 20 30
CSG  73 91 72 91 /  40 40 20 20
MCN  72 90 69 90 /  40 40 20 20

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

NOEL

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-262300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS DAY TIME HEATING COMBINE WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. LIFTED
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 RANGE...WITH
CAPES 1500 TO 2000. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...HOWEVER
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM. THE BEST
AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.