Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, August 20, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2002

CURRENTLY: LATEST RUC 850-500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ACROSS COASTAL SC AND GA AND INTO THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND. MSAS DATA
ALSO SHOWS A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL
AREA...BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.

RADARS AT THIS TIME ARE DETECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND DRIFTING EAST. NO ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS AS OF
YET...BUT WITH SOME SUN PEEKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS WE SHOULD SEE THE
SEABREEZE BECOMING ACTIVE TODAY.

MODELS/ZFP: IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALL MODELS SHOW THE VORT LOBE WHICH
EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SLIPPING ON SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS WELL...AND THIS
SECOND SYSTEM TAKES THE VORT ENERGY OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE INVERTED TROUGH INTITIALLY OVER S FL LIFTS W TO NW AND ETA HAS
IT FARTHER N THAN EITHER THE NGM OR AVN. AT ANY RATE ALL OF THE
MODELS WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT BASICALLY THE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN
BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BACK DOWN ACROSS THE SE U.S.

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PWS WILL REMAIN HIGH...GENERALLY AROUND
2 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY...AND  1.8 - 2.0 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SEA BREEZE REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY IS TYPE 1 WHICH IS LIGHT
SE 1000-700MB FLOW. THIS TYPICALLY CALLS FOR LOW POPS TO THE NORTH
AND 40-50% OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES. WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE VORT ENERGY
ENHANCING CONVECTION WILL GO WITH 40 PERCENT TO THE NORTH AND 50%
FOR FL. FOR THURSDAY THE SEA BREEZE REGIME IS TYPE 1 OR 2 (LIGHT SE
OR E)...AND FRIDAY IS TYPE 6 (SE 10 KNOTS OR LESS). FOR THURSDAY
WILL LEAN AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR MOST PLACES...SINCE THE PWS ARE
HIGHER THAN CLIMO. BY FRIDAY THE POPS FOR THIS REGIME ARE TYPICALLY
HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW TO THE EAST...AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND
SINCE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST
AS THE INVERTED TROF OVER THE WEST PULLS THE VORT ENERGY AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHTS POP FORECASTS WILL BE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND AT THIS
TIME THERE ISNT ANY CONVECTION OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS IS MAKING ME
NERVOUS SINCE I INCREASED POPS EARLIER TODAY. FOR THE TIME BEING
WILL GO WITH 20% PERCENT...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE RIGHT BEFORE ISSUANCE
TIME.

MARINE: WINDS WILL BE EITHER LIGHT AND VRB OR HAVE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...BUT SPEEDS WELL BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS...SO NO CONCERNS
HERE.

FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY): MRF SHOWS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT THEN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ALSO THE
LOCAL SEABREEZE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST THAN THE WIND REGIMES FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE SE INITIALLY...THEN SW DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EITHER REGIME CALLS FOR
GENERALLY SCATTERED POPS (30-50%) OR SO. MEX NUMBERS ALSO REFLECT
THIS THINKING.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TLH 072/091 072/091  2524
PFN 074/088 075/089  2524
DHN 073/091 073/091  2424
ABY 072/091 073/091  2423
VLD 072/091 072/092  2424
CTY 071/090 071/091  2524

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

MOLLERE

GAZ122-124-126-127-210115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
815 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER RANDOLPH...TERRELL...LEE AND
NORTHERN WORTH COUNTIES...
A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO RANDOLPH...
TERRELL...LEE AND NORTHERN WORTH COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. WITH THESE STORMS...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS AND CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

7-TREXLER