Damaging Winds in Georgia, August 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2002

DISC:  17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.

SATELLITE SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALREADY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND ALSO TO OUR WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA. BOTH AVN/ETA KEEP MAIN CENTER OF MID/UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
WEST WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVES STAYING WELL TO OUR NORTH. BOTH AVN/ETA
SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AVN A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PUSHING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING NICE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE AL AND N GA.
BOTH MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH ALREADY DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ETA SHOWS
GOOD TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. ETA IS STRONGER AND SHOULD BE BECAUSE
IT HANDLES THESE SMALLER/WEAKER SCALE FEATURES BETTER THAN THE AVN.
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THINK CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BETTER
THAN TODAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
AGREES WELL WITH BOTH GUIDANCE AND LOCAL EQUATIONS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...T1 TEMPS WARMER TOMORROW...BUT SHOULD HAVE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. KEEPING WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE
WEEK WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE WEE.

FCSTID = 77
CAE   72  95  73  94 /  20  30  40  30
AGS   70  95  71  94 /  20  30  40  30
SSC   72  94  73  94 /  20  30  40  30
OGB   71  95  72  94 /  20  30  40  30

.CAE...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

LCV