Damaging Wind in Florida, November 12, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
846 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2002

THE FRONT IS BETWEEN CROSS CITY AND PERRY AT 8 PM.  PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES. OTHER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  A STRONG
SHORT WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PHASE UP WITH THE FRONT...SO I AM
INCLINED NOT TO REMOVE THE HIGH POPS FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
SO THE COASTAL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALSO.  NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED TONIGHT.

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM
       INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
    ...FIRE WX WATCH WEDNESDAY FOR INLAND LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...
       PASCO...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES AND ALL OF SUMTER AND
       POLK COUNTIES.

SOBIEN

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-122200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
11 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2002

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CITRUS AND
LEVY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE INTO LEVY COUNTY BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM  THE
TAIL OF THIS LINE MAY REACH INTO NORTHERN CITRUS COUNTY BETWEEN 1
AND 3 PM.  RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY
GREATER THAN 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...THOUGH A SMALL TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH OF A SARASOTA TO HIGHLANDS COUNTY
LINE...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.  AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  RECENT
DATA SUGGEST THAT SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN LEVY
COUNTY...AND MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ELSEWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

...BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY...

MARINE HAZARDS:
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.  SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF
8 FEET IN SOME AREAS...AND WAVES IN EXPOSED AREAS ON TAMPA BAY MAY
BUILD TO 4 FEET.  MARINERS...ESPECIALLY SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS...MAY
WANT TO DELAY OR POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THIS
WEEK.

FIRE HAZARDS:
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WEDNESDAY.  BY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 35
PERCENT ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A TAMPA BAY
THROUGH POLK COUNTY.  A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW