Damaging Wind in Florida, March 26, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
115 PM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

PERHAPS A BIT OF ROUGH WX THIS AFTN AND EVENING...THEN BACK TO
SPLENDID SPRING WX ACROSS THE PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY THU/FRI WHEN
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY RETURNS...SPELLING SUNNY WARM DAYS AND CLEAR
REFRESHING NIGHTS.

NO REAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS THIS GO-ROUND...AND RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY FOR BOTH SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE IN FCST.

SHORT TERM:
WILL ONCE AGAIN BREAK OFF AN EVENING PERIOD TO HANDLE EXPECTED
CONVECTION.  CURRENT FCST OF HIGHEST CHC INLAND STILL ON TARGET...AS
SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND UPPER ENERGY LINK UP
AROUND 00Z.  THE OTHER AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS LEVY CO...CLOSEST
TO THE ENERGY/DEEP MOISTURE ALONG TROUGH LINE.  EXPECT PCPN TO
QUICKLY EXIT THE COASTAL COS BEFORE OR JUST AFTER DARK...THEN OVER
INLAND AREAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

THEREAFTER...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.  LIKE THE IDEA
OF FOG AS SFC WINDS BEHIND TROUGH WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL.  WILL CONTINUE PATCHY WORDING...
THOUGH EVE SHIFT MAY WANT TO HIT HARDER IN UPDATE.  FOR WED...WILL
RELUCTANTLY HOLD ONTO VERY LOW PCPN CHC INTERIOR AND SW AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  A COOL DRY WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY THURS WITH
TEMPS A TAD ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

EXTENDED:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE PACKAGE.  A GRADUAL MOISTENING
OF THE AIR MASS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF PCPN
SUNDAY AS DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS.  PREFER TO STAY ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE AND WILL PULL MENTION.  FOR MON/TUE...STILL APPEARS TO BE SMALL
CHANCES OF PCPN AS DYING FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD 2-4 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE:
WITH WED FRONT LOOKING EVEN MORE PALTRY WILL BACK OFF A CATEGORY
FOR WIND SPEED FCST.  THAT MEANS A QUIET TIME RIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND...OUTSIDE OF ANY EVENING ACTIVITY TODAY.

FIRE WX:
NO PROBLEMS THROUGH WED...THOUGH RH VALUES SHOULD DROP A BIT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  DRIER AIR STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER RH AND RAISE
MIXING HEIGHTS BOTH THURS AND FRI.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 060/082 047/082 3000
TPA 067/081 055/079 3000
GIF 066/084 055/083 4100
SRQ 067/079 056/079 2000
FMY 067/084 058/084 3200

.TBW...NONE.

88/GOLDSMITH

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-262100-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1040 AM EST TUE MAR 26 2002

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A SEA BREEZE COLLISION...TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE...AND OVER SOME
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.  THE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...PRIMARILY
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  THE STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST...COVERING MUCH OF INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.  OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS...LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG