Lightning Strike in Florida, July 24, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
943 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2002

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY (PWS 2/LI  -10C)
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS  -10C VIA 12Z ROAB DATA SHOULD RESULT IN
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS GET UNDERWAY.
BASED ON THE SOUNDING PROFILES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A
TROPICAL WAVE OR SHEAR AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN TO BUMP UP POPS TO 50% FOR MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES IN A LATE MORNING UPDATE.

IN ADDITION DRY AIR AND COLDER TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WINDS SO WILL MENTION GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS IN THE ZONES...AND WILL HIT ON THIS IN
THE HWO LATER THIS MORNING.

ON THE MARINE SIDE ...NO REAL CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE...HOWEVER BASED ON EXPECTED INCREASE IN TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL
ADD WORDING OF WIND/SEAS HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-242330-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1128 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2002

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATERS ON
ROADWAYS AND INTERSECTIONS.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. DRY AIR AND
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. REMEMBER...WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS
TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE
STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

MCMICHAEL