Flooding in Florida, December 14 to 16, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN
245 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2002

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING COURTESY OF VERY STRONG (>150 KTS) SUBTROPICAL
JET ALOFT...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COOLER DRIER AIR WAS
FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...BUT W-NW FLOW OFF THE GULF
AND CANOPY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

SHORT TERM(TODAY-MON)...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING THE GFS/ETA
SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SO A BLEND WILL BE USED.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF SLOWLY
BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP THE FA...DRY AND ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO PUSH THE JET
AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TAKING WITH IT THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL KEEP THE FA ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING TO 60 IN
THE FAR NORTH...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS MIN TEMPS
GO...HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO LOW TONIGHT
BUT LOWER/MID 30S ARE STILL LIKELY FAR NORTH UNDER CAA...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH NEAR FREEZING FAR NORTH TO
LOWER/MID 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AS CLOUDS THIN OUT AND LIGHT NLY
DRAINAGE FLOW SETS UP AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

EXTENDED(TUES-FRI)...REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTH TO THE FL WILL KEEP THE FA DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH
THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WITH MORE COOL TO COLD TEMPS. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE ON TUES A NE-ELY WIND FLOW WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE FA WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP EXPECTED WED-FRI. ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. CURRENT ZONES
ALREADY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR POPS MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS GOOD...BUT
WILL REVIEW THE MRF LATER THIS MORNING...AND WILL TWEAK WORDING IF
NECESSARY OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED.

MARINE...C-MAN SITES INDICATING SCEC CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEST TO NW WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FURTHER OFFSHORE
WINDS/SEAS ARE EVEN STRONGER WITH BUOY 42036 INDICATING GUSTS CLOSE
TO GALE FORCE THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEA OF 15 FEET GIVEN THE TIGHT
GRADIENT AND CAA EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY WILL UPGRADE SCEC TO SCA
OVER THE BAY AND MAINTAIN SCA FLAGS ELSEWHERE. WITH THE STRONG
ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE HWO WITH WORDING OF
POSSIBLE RIP CURRENTS. BY TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WIND/SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY EAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON BRISK W-
NWLY WINDS PROGD TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WATCHES
OR RED FLAGS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY #S
BKV 061/034 061/032 0000
TPA 064/044 062/043 0000
GIF 064/043 063/041 0000
SRQ 066/045 063/043 0000
FMY 070/047 067/046 0000

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM
       INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
505  AM EST FRI DEC 13 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY EARLY TODAY...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE GULF WATERS...

A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL
SUPPORT RAIN...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL. AREA
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOP.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS...AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
SHORT LIVED TORNADOES OR MARINE WATERSPOUTS.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING
HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MAY FIRE OFF
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH.

SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH LATE TODAY MAY
CAUSE STAGES TO RISE EVEN FURTHER.

RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE URGED TO REMAIN
ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...AND BE PREPARED
TO SEEK SAFETY SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH. RESIDENTS LIVING
ALONG RIVERS AND FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO ANY
RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS...AND SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IF
FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TODAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WHILE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
OVER THE TAMPA BAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND OR WARNING SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

JCM