Damaging Wind in Florida, August 26, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2002

...INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AFTER 5 PM...

MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM DEVELOPING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING...PCP WATER HAS RISEN TO 1.8 AT XMR...
BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINS ABOVE 850 MB. IT WILL BE VERY
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 15Z CAPE SOUNDING LOOKS LIKE...BUT
EXPECT MOISTENING AND COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN
700 AND 850 MB...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW. THIS OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DELAY THE ONSET AND INLAND PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE KEEPING IT MAINLY EAST OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEST
COAST BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE AFTER 5 PM. WILL
UPDATE ZONES TO ENHANCE WORDING FOR VOLUSIA/BREVARD/I.R. COUNTIES.
ALSO PLAN TO RAISE *EVENING* POPS TO 50% THERE.

MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE...ESP
N OF THE CAPE. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING...ESP NORTH OF VERO BEACH.

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
262100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2002

...STRONG STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE. INCREASING INSTABILITY TO
THE WEST WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO BE MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 5 PM...WHEN THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. THIS
SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA. MOVEMENT OF ALL
STORMS WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS
ALONG THE ST JOHNS HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED IN RECENT DAYS...HEAVY
RAINS MAY BRING THE RIVER BACK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE...
ESPECIALLY AT GENEVA AND SANFORD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF VERO BEACH. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. EVERYONE
SHOULD KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE TO THE WEST FOR APPROACHING STORM
CLOUDS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE COVER QUICKLY SHOULD THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACH.

TO VIEW THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

KELLY