Funnel Cloud in Florida, August 22, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
214 AM EDT THU AUG 22 2002

CURRENT THRU TODAY...SHOWERS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE ATLANTIC SINCE
MIDNIGHT WITH AREA IN REGION OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH U/L LOW/TUTT.
EVENING CAPE SOUNDING HAD EASTERLY COMPONENT TO WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. MODELS INDICATE THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT WILL SHEAR WSW TODAY AND UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CWA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WITH E TO SE FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE INLAND SECTIONS. SINCE FEATURES ALOFT WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL NOT LIMIT WORDING FOR
PRECIP TO AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR. WITH ACTIVITY MOVING WEST OF
AREA RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS STARTING
TO WORK IN BEHIND IT...MAY NOT NEED ANY OR ONLY MINIMAL POPS BY THIS
EVENING OVER INTERIOR.

FRI...UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FL/GA
BORDER. AS THIS OCCURS...TEMPS ALOFT WARM AND PWATS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES IN CWA. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS BACK SOUTH
TO ACROSS C FL WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS. HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH A LITTLE WARMER AND WARMING/DRYING ALOFT
WILL LIMIT EXTENT TO PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL KEEP TREND IN CURRENT
ZONES OF LOWER POPS THAN TODAY WITH SLIGHT POPS NEAR COAST AND LOW
END SCT OVER INTERIOR...MAINLY FOR LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

WEEKEND...RIDGE ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS SOUTH OF CWA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH...THE EAST SIDE OF PENINSULA
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD STAY
LIMITED SATURDAY WITH PWATS SLOW TO RECOVER. AVN INDICATES PWATS
ONLY ABOUT 1.5 INCHES SAT...THEN CLIMBING TO 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE BY
LATE SUNDAY.

EXTENDED...RAIN CHANCES CRAWLING UPWARD EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH PWATS
INCREASING AS WEAKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO FAR NORTHERN FL.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW GENERAL
DRIFT OF STORMS BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

MARINE...E-SE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE
AXIS TO THE NORTH...THEN WILL VEER TO A SW-W COMPONENT BY SATURDAY
AS RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS. NO
HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIM...
DAB BU 088/072 091/073 092 3-2
MCO TB 091/073 093/074 093 413
MLB BU 088/073 090/074 091 3-2

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...GLITTO
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GITTINGER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
222100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
605 AM EDT THU AUG 22 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY...

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS WILL MAINLY OCCUR NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES QUICKLY INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY LATER TODAY WILL RESTRICT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE
FLOODING OF STREETS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS FROM SANFORD AND DELTONA TO DELAND REMAIN ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING...WITH WATER LEVELS HIGH FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION
SHOULD HEAVY RAINS DEVELOP OR FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

STORMS TODAY WILL ALSO CONTAIN DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH. IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA...MOVE
INTO A STURDY STRUCTURE AT ONCE. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE YOU EVEN WHEN
THE STORM IS NOT OVERHEAD.

THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AS ONLY A SLIGHT RISE IN THE RIVER COULD PUSH LEVELS TO
FLOOD STAGE NEAR SANFORD AND LAKE HARNEY.

TO VIEW THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

GLITTO