Hail in Florida, August 20, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
248 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2002

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE LOOP AND 88D RETURNS INDICATE CONVECTION DVLPG
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM NEAR KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA..WITH
OTHER CONVECTION NOTED OVER SERN LEVY COUNTY. THE AIR MASS NORTH
OF THE BAY AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER A BIT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
OVER THE GULF...AND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LINGERING
IN THESE AREAS...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE A
BIT LOWER COMPARED TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS WILL WORD FOR ISOLATED EVENING FROM HERNANDO
NORTH (MAINLY INLAND AREAS) AND SCATTERED CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT NORTHERN ZONES FROM HERNANDO COUNTY NORTH MAY AGAIN SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE 50H SHEAR IN THE VICINITY...SO WILL WORD FOR ISOLATED LATE NIGHT
POPS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM(TON-FRI)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS...SO A BLEND WILL BE USED. STRUNG OUT SW-NE
ORIENTATED 50H SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED
THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. AT THE SAME
TIME A TUTT LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS DRIFTS WEST ACROSS THE SRN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS A LITTLE NORTH. THIS TUTT LOW MAY ADD ADDITIONAL
LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ON THURSDAY IN ADDITION TO THE SEA BREEZE...SO AT THIS TIME
WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE ACROSS THE BOARD FOR BOTH
DAYS.

ON FRIDAY THE AVN WANTS TO BRING IN SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE NORTH. NOT TOTALLY SURE IF THIS WILL PAN OUT AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL CUT POPS BACK BY 10% IN THE NORTH (40%)...AND
KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO 50% ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE TEMPS CONTINUE VERY
CLOSE SO WILL USE A BLEND.

EXTENDED(SAT-TUES)...LATEST AVN RUN KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SERN U.S. AND NRN GULF ON SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS IT A BIT SOUTH ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SERN U.S..
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z RUN THE AVN WANTS TO DEPICT SOME DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE N-CENTRAL FA ON SATURDAY...WITH PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 1.6 RANGE. AGAIN NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POP WORDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP E-SELY
FLOW FAVORS SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...DELIGHTFUL BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MEANDER
ABOUT THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT A LIGHT E-SELY WIND FLOW WITH
DAILY ONSHORE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
TSTMS...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

THANKS FOR COORD KMLB.

PRELIMINARY #S
BKV 072/092 072/091 3535
TPA 075/091 075/091 3535
GIF 074/092 075/093 3535
SRQ 073/090 073/091 3535
FMY 074/092 074/092 3535

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL