Flood in Florida, August 19, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

TONIGHT...W COAST BRZ MOST ACTIVE NORTH OF TPA THIS AFTN...SHOULD
SEE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TOWARD THE NRN INTERIOR
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND MAY SEE SOME STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST AS THE EAST COAST BRZ DEVELOPS AND
COLLISIONS OCCUR WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL PROBABLY NEED HIGH
SCT RANGE POPS FOR NRN HALF/N CSTL...BUT WILL BASE ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CLOSER TO ISSUANCE TIME. ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES
WILL ALSO NEED LOW POP 20-30 FOR EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY.

TUE...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES A WHOLE LOT TOMMORROW
FROM ITS PRESENT POSITION JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS WITH SW LOW
LVL FLOW PROGD ACROSS THE NRN HALF ON TUE. WILL LEAN TWD AVN/NGM
MOISTURE PROFILES WHICH SHOW SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS ACROSS OUR FAR SRN
ZONES...THIS LOOKS PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE LOW
LEVEL SFC RIDGE AXIS TODAY AND STRIP OF LOWER DWPTS AND SLOW START
TO CU FIELD ACROSS THE SRN ZONES THIS AFTN. WILL TREND POPS FROM
HIGH SCT NRN ZONES TO LOW SCT SRN ZONES. MID LVL CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 24N 73.5W CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TWD 24N 76W BY 18Z TUE.
COULD SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
FAR SRN ZONES...SO THERE IS ANOTHER REASON TO TREND TWD LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES.

WED...ETA SHOWS UPPER LOW/VORT CENTER MOVING TWD S FL WHILE AVN/NGM
STALLS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. AVN/ETA SHOW
HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS LIFTING NORTH...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
LOWERING TO 1.8 - 1.9. SHOULD KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40 RANGE...WITH
HIGHER POPS NORTH AND INTERIOR ZONES.

THU...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH DEEPENING
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AS EAST COAST SEA BRZ MOVES INLAND. AVN SHOWS THE REMAINS
OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING EAST TOWARD ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES IN
THE AFTN. WILL GO WITH 30 POPS FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND 40 PCT FOR
THE INTERIOR AT THIS POINT.

FRI-MON...SFC RIDGE AXIS RETREATS BACK SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL OVER THE
WKND AND THEN MOVES NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO KEEP POPS IN THE SCT RANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...S/SW FLOW WILL BECOME SE BY WED AS RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SHOULD SEE
E-SE WINDS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AGAIN MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

PRELIM....
DAB TB 073/091 073/090 073 15453
MCO TT 074/092 073/092 074 15443
MLB BB 074/090 074/089 075 15332

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...VOLKMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT

FLZ064-191945-

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
318 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

...STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 318 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT INDICATED A STORM WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER
INDIANTOWN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED
AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE
OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM LIGHTNING.

SPRATT

FLZ041-192100-

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
420 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2002

...STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT INDICATED A STORM WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER LAKE HELEN
AND ORANGE CITY. OTHER STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WERE
STRADDLING THE FLAGLER VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE NEAR BAKERSTOWN...

SEVILLE AND PIERSON. THE ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WEST.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE LIGHTNING STORMS INCLUDE SOUTH DELAND
AND CASSADAGA.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED
AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE
OFFER NO PROTECTION.

CRISTALDI