Damaging Wind in Florida, August 18, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
235 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2002

CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88D RETURNS DEPICT
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LAPS SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERING THE FA...SO AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AS
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION TAKE PLACE. OVERALL STEERING FLOW IS
WEAK BUT STILL FROM A SE-SLY DIRECTION...SO WILL AGAIN KEEP HIGHEST
POPS (30%) ALONG MY COASTAL ZONES FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM(TON-WED)...MODEL TREND CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WITH RESPECT TO PWS AND THE EXACT POSITION OF SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN DEALING WITH THE PWS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST ON SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (PWS
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6) WHICH IN TURN ARE REFLECTED IN THE
BELOW CLIMO POPS ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE. SEEING THAT THE TREND FOR
LOWER PWS HAS YET TO REALLY MATERIALIZE...AND I DONT SEE WHERE IT
WILL COME ON THE CURRENT WV LOOP...WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO
LEVEL (50%) COASTAL ZONES...AND 40% INTERIOR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION BEING THE AFTERNOON SEA/LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE VERY
SIMILAR...SO WILL USE A BLEND.

EXTENDED(THURS-SUN)...LATEST AVN SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. AND FL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH A RENEWED SFC HIGH CENTER BUILDING IN ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILES AND AN EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH
READINGS CONTINUING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO-LEVELS.

MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL
PROVIDE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT SE-SLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE WITH SLIGHT SEAS AND A DAILY SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING
NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY #S
BKV 071/092 071/091 3535
TPA 075/092 075/090 3535
GIF 074/093 074/093 2424
SRQ 074/090 074/090 3535
FMY 074/092 074/092 3535

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL