Hail in Florida, August 1, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2002

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASING NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW OFF THE GA COAST HAS BECOME STATIONARY HAVING
BEEN ABANDONED BY UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO PULL IT NE. RUC40 SHOWS
VORT LOBE EXTENDING ACROSS N FL AND DROPPING SOUTH. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
PRODUCING CONVECTION MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
FARTHER SOUTH THOUGH...SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THRU SUA
AND FPR THANKS TO LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW AND STRONGER HEATING. MAY
SEE A LATE SEA BREEZE UP TO VOLUSIA COUNTY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
ONGOING CONVECTION AS THE 2 FEATURES COLLIDE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THIS EVE ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE...MAINLY AFFECTING COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS. ONE
OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE (DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/COIN
SIZED HAIL). EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS...WHICH OFTEN IS THE GREATEST HAZARD.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SW TOWARDS THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW OVER N FL. RESULTING
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SW FLOW CALLS FOR GOOD CHANCE
POPS (50%) ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH NO EVENING MENTION. ELSEWHERE
WILL GO 40% BUT MAINLY FOR EVE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH...30% FOR
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. AVN APPEARS TOO QUICK TO DEVELOP THE CLOSED LOW
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND PRES ANALYSIS. WILL LEAN TOWARD MESOETA.

FRI...SHEAR AXIS REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN N FL.
MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES W/R/T THE SFC LOW BUT
INTENSITIES ARE SIMILAR. AVN DROPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
DRIFTING IT WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
ITS HIGHER POPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL BUMP UP NORTHERN
COUNTIES TO 70%...AND KEEP CENTRAL AT 60% AND SOUTH AT 50%. MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S WITH CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN IN THE NORTH. WARMER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH WHERE
RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LOWER. INCREASING SW GRADIENT WILL AT
LEAST DELAY SEA BREEZE DOWN THERE...IF NOT PROHIBIT IT.

WEEKEND...SFC LOW DRIFTS WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SHEAR
AXIS PUSHES NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE FA AS RIDGING NUDGES IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WILL GO 60%/50%/40% SAT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL LOWER
THOSE POPS 10% ACROSS THE BOARD SUN AS MOISTURE RETREATS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH.

MON-THU...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP S ACROSS THE SW ATLC AND MAY
PULL THE SHEAR AXIS AND DEEPER MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA MON
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. DRIER AIR MAY ADVECT IN TUE AHEAD OF
EASTERLY WAVE...THEN BACK TO HIGHER POPS WED/THU AS WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

MARINE...WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER N FL TONIGHT AND BACK THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SW. GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH
LEG FRI WITH AT LEAST A DELAYED SEA BREEZE. WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PUSHES WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE SE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVE.

PRELIM...
DAB TT 071/088 073/090 073 5736
MCO TT 073/088 073/090 073 4635
MLB TB 073/090 074/090 075 4634=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW