Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, April 30, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
130 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2002

...NEAR RECORD HEAT WED/THU...

CURRENTLY/SHORT TERM...HARD TO BELIEVE THAT THE WEAK FRONT DROPPED
TO ABOUT CANAVERAL WITH SURGE OF LOWER DEW POINTS MAKING IT INTO
VOLUSIA COUNTY (BELOW 60 FOR A FEW HOURS).  TWO THINGS TO WATCH OUT
FOR.  ONE IS THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH SURGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW MAY
SHOVE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST SMALL POPS AT
THE LAST MINUTE.  OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE PROPENSITY FOR
STORMS FAR TO THE NORTH TO KICK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  NOT SURE IF THIS WILL PLAY A PART IN THE MIX ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.

WED/THU...LOOKS LIKE HOT WEATHER SETTING UP WITH MODEL PROGS SHOWING
850 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE MID
90S THAT ETA/AVN MOS ARE SHOWING.  TREND HAS BEEN UPWARD SO WILL
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.  WITH NEXT SYSTEM WINDING UP IN THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND SEA BREEZE
PROBABLY WILL NOT FORM OVER THE SOUTH...SO THINKING ABOUT LOW/MID
90S THERE.  UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES
BY TO THE NORTH EARLY WED EXPECTED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

FRI/SAT...AVN SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO A WEAKENING BOUNDARY
STALLING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AS 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 590M
REMAIN ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  THE MODEL CONTINUES ITS DAILY
AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASE BUT THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE WILL
RULE AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.  WILL HAVE TO SEE MORE THAN A SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE
TO PULL US OUT OF THE DRY SPELL...WILL NEED EITHER *SUBSTANTIAL*
INCREASE...OR A MODEST INCREASE ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST LAPSE RATE
(RATHER THAN WARMING TEMPS ALOFT HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE). THERE
SHOULD BE SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ALONG THE COAST AS ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS...BUT NOT MUCH FOR THE INTERIOR.

SUN-TUE...LOOKS LIKE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH SURFACE AXIS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
PATTERN.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

FIRE WEATHER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MARGINAL FIRE WX CONDS
ON WED WITH PW VALUES 1.3 W/SOLID 15-20KT WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
THE MIXING LAYER.  WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE SEA
BREEZE...TEMPS AOA 90 EXPECTED AREA WIDE.  RH VALUES MAY BE MARGINAL
...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LVL CONV MAY
CONCENTRATE MOISTURE.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT...AND WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS 5KFT...DISPERSION INDICES
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FIRE WX WATCH OVR
THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.

MARINE...DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH INCREASE IN
OFFSHORE FLOW OCCURRING WED/THU.  THIS WILL MAINLY BE AN OFFSHORE
ISSUE WITH SEAS INCREASING BUT ONLY TO 4-5 FEET.

RECORD HIGHS (WED-FRI)...

        MAY 1      MAY 2      MAY 3
DAB   93 (1953)  95 (1953)  94 (1951)
MCO   94 (1990)  95 (1990)  94 (1978)
MLB   93 (1953)  94 (1953)  93 (1997)

PRELIM...
DAB BU 068/093 069/095 070 2000
MCO BU 069/093 070/095 070 2000
MLB BU 070/093 071/093 071 1000

.MLB...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WED AFTN LAKE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA
       OSCEOLA...NORTH BREVARD.

PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW