Damaging Wind in Colorado, August 18, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
118 PM MDT SUN AUG 18 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FRONT TONIGHT AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR
EXTENDED...

CURRENTLY: A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS
STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF HEATING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
SO FAR...JUST SOME CG STRIKES AND VIRGA...WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH...AS WAS EXPECTED. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS WY...WITH MAJORITY OF CO REMAINING IN A
WESTERLY FLOW. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET LAY ACROSS THE STATE...
HELPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY: WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...DECIDED TO INSERT 20
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DRY...FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH
MESOETA AND AVN BOTH SHOWING FRONT CROSSING THE PALMER SOMETIME
BEWTEEN 03Z AND 06Z. AGREE WITH MID FORECASTER AND FEEL THAT SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE PAINTING TOO MUCH PRECIP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WILL STAY WITH A DRY BUT WINDY PASSAGE...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...BY MIDDAY SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE E-
SE. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING...SINCE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN
INTO OREGON...AND SW FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: MODELS CONTINUE DROPPING THE PAC NW UPPER
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN OR...CREATING A SW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE STATE
THAT LASTS INTO THE EXTENDED. MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE QUICK
IN BRINGING POPS INTO CWA...BUT WILL LET ONGOING 20 POPS FOR
THE MTS REMAIN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY. BY
WED...FEEL MORE SURE OF PRECIP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT KEEPING
IN MIND WHAT HAS BEEN THE NORM THIS SUMMER CONCERNING PRECIP...WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE PLAINS...FOR NOW.

FOR THE EXTENDED (THURS THROUGH SUN): CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT ON
THURSDAY...WITH EXTENDED MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER POINTED
OUT...NEWER MODEL RUNS HAVE THE HI RIDGE FURTHER EAST...WHICH MIGHT
NOT TOTALLY CUT OFF THE MOISTURE FEED. THIS LASTS THROUGH SATURDAY...
THEN SW FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY. LOOKING AT MODEL PAST PERFORMANCE AND
ONGOING CLIMATOLOGY...AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE MTN POPS FOR FRI THROUGH
SUN RIGHT NOW...WHICH WOULD BE SLIGHT CHC AT BEST. STILL EARLY...SO
IF CURRENT TREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER RUN...THEN INTRODUCING POPS
FOR THE MTS ON FRI LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.

.PUB...NONE.

MOORE

COZ058>089-093>099-181900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1118 AM MDT SUN AUG 18 2002

...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THROUGH 7 AM TOMORROW...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY...

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PIKES PEAK...THE SAWATCH RANGE AND
THE COLLEGIATE PEAKS...AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE ISOLATED HIGHER MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ORDWAY
TO KIM.