Wildfire in California, August 1 to 14, 2002

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
210 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2002

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER THE CWFA
TODAY...SPINNING OFF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IN THE EPAC NEAR 135W/32N.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE U.S. INTERIOR...
CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE EPAC LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN A SLOW EWD DRIFT TOWARD THE CA
COAST ON FRI. MODELS STILL SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER THE NEWEST RUNS SHOW
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LOW DOWN THE BC
COAST FRI-SAT...THEN MERGING WITH THE EPAC LOW LINGERING OFF THE CA
COAST BY 00Z SUN.

FOR SHORT TERM...EXPECT MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS TO DIMINISH OVER NORCAL
TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING ALOFT. SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CENTERED NEAR CEC WITH MODERATE PRES GRADIENT NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER...SO EXPECT NEAR SHORE WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A
RETURN OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS
MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAVING INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...PRESENTLY
ABOUT 1700FT DEEP. SO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/PATCHY FOG NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECT LOW CLOUD TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTH OF TRINIDAD HEAD AS MESOETA BUILDS THE GRADIENT
SOUTH...WITH AN INLAND PUSH OVER THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AS MSLP PROGS
INDICATE AN INCREASED ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

FOR THU/FRI EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AS MODELS INDICATE A DRYING
ATMOSPHERE IN SW FLOW ALOFT. FOR SAT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING
TOWARD A DRIER AND MORE STABLE SOLUTION FOR NORCAL. THE AVN SHOWS
THE EPAC LOW MERGING WITH THE STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTH...AS AN
UPPER LOW BUILDS IN THE PAC NW. A VORTICITY MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE CENTRAL CA LATE SAT...BUT TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING A CHANCE OF
PCPN TO NORCAL. THIS VORT FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE AVN TO MOVE
NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA BY SUN.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MED RANGE MODELS KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW
ALONG THE COAST...EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE CANANDIAN/AK INTERIOR. THE
LATEST AVN BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE AND PCPN INTO NORCAL ON
MON...HOWEVER WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS SOLUTION AS IT DIVERGES
CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. INSTEAD WILL INDICATE INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE SAT...AND COOLING TEMPERATURES AS MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS
DROPPING TO NEAR 570 BY MON. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND WAIT FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INTRODUCING PCPN. CILIBERTI.

ALL POPS ZERO

.EKA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA 20-60NM.