Damaging Wind in Arkansas, May 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
158 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

RUNNING BEHIND DUE TO A VARIETY OF EQUIPMENT ISSUES SO WILL BE BRIEF.

COLD FRONT NEAR A TULSA-JOPLIN LINE AT 130 PM. FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS OUR CWFA BETWEEN 8 PM THIS EVENING AND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT FRONT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALL LINE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST HALF
OF CWFA...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALSO LOW...BUT WILL
FOREGO FLOOD WATCH DUE TO EXPECTED BRIEF DURATION OF RAINS. SEVERAL
AREAS COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A SHORT TIME AND WILL MENTION
HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOW TO SHRED OUT MONDAY IN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION REGIME SO WILL UNDERCUT FWC MOS AND LEAN TOWARD COOLER
MAV. DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LONGER...WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CHANGES WILL BE MINIMAL AS FOCUS IS ON FIRST 24 HOURS.

HRO 51/69 48/76 52 +000
LIT 62/75 51/80 55 9100
HOT 62/73 50/82 55 9-00
PBF 64/72 53/81 56 8300

.LZK...NONE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-130230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT...AND WERE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE...WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE
MORE THAN ONE STORM MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA.

SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THESE AREAS WILL BE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING IF MORE HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING AT NIGHT CAN BE MORE DANGEROUS AS
MANY PEOPLE ARE SLEEPING AND UNABLE TO RECEIVE WARNINGS. IF YOU
HAVE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO...BE SURE IT IS ON AND IN ALERT MODE...AND
LEAVE IT NEAR YOUR BED TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION...
OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

ARZ003>007-012>015-021>023-030-037-038-040-130500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
715 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI...EXTREME NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT SEPARATED
WARM AND HUMID AIR TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST FROM MUCH COOLER AIR
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE.

WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
HARDY...CLINTON AND MENA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL BE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

LATER TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE...A STORM
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS. THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH THE LOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

PEOPLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. BE READY TO FIND A PLACE OF SAFETY
IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION...
OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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