Damaging Wind in Arizona, August 20, 2002

Name: Damaging Wind in Arizona, August 20, 2002
Start: 2002-08-20T17:30
End: 2002-08-20T18:30
Location: Arizona

August 20, 2002 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Strong thunderstorms moved across the town of Safford on the late afternoon of the 20th. A peak wind gust of 57 mph was reported at the ASOS at Safford Airport.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

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Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $15,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

Strong thunderstorms moved across the town of Safford on the late afternoon of the 20th. A peak wind gust of 57 mph was reported at the ASOS at Safford Airport. The newspaper reported several houses and carports received damage due to the strong winds from the thunderstorm. A 70 foot tree toppled onto a house located on Highway 191 and 12th Street. This 100 year old tree punched holes into the roof which caused more damage when the kitchen flooded.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 20, 1:50 PM MST, 3 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 20, 1:50 PM MST, 3 hours 40 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALONG WITH THIS DRYING
TREND...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

.DISCUSSION...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN AND DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE. THIS DRYING WILL LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
THAT COULD LEAD TO A LONG STRETCH OF LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE DRYING...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA. IN THE
MEANTIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE DRY POCKET OF
AIR ALOFT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERTS THIS MORNING
HAD PROGRESSED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BEST
UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW EXITING THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WERE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. THUS...PRESENT THINKING IS THAT FAST MOVING T-STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EAST OF TUCSON
ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH AREAS WEST OF
TUCSON REMAINING IN THE CLEAR.

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 20, 11:58 AM MST, 5 hours 32 minutes before

AZZ019-029>035-210700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1158 AM MST TUE AUG 20 2002

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING TO AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF TUCSON WILL INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR FURTHER WEST WILL DECREASE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC
FORCING ACROSS THE AREA AND AIDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

TO THE EAST OF TUCSON...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING HAS SLOWED SOLAR HEATING. ALTHOUGH THIS
WOULD NORMALLY DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THIS LACK OF HEATING. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY LINE
STRETCHING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM TO FIRE ALONG THIS DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATED THAT DEEPER LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES EAST OF TUCSON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A STRONG
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW AT 15 MPH WILL LIMIT THE TIME THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TO DROP PRECIPITATION IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITY FOR RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH WILL BE ONLY BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY TO THE
EAST.

DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF TUCSON SUGGESTS A GREATER RISK OF DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEST. SINCE EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
LIE IN BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST AND THE MOIST AIR TO THE
EAST...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

Special weather statement, Aug 20, 12:12 PM MST, 5 hours 18 minutes before

AZZ019-029>035-210700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1212 AM MST TUE AUG 20 2002

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING TO AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF TUCSON WILL INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR FURTHER WEST WILL DECREASE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC
FORCING ACROSS THE AREA AND AIDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

TO THE EAST OF TUCSON...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING HAS SLOWED SOLAR HEATING. ALTHOUGH THIS
WOULD NORMALLY DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THIS LACK OF HEATING. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY LINE
STRETCHING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM TO FIRE ALONG THIS DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE DEEPER LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES EAST OF TUCSON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...A STRONGER STORM MOTION...TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WILL LIMIT THE TIME THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TO DROP PRECIPITATION IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THEREFORE...THE
PROBABILITY FOR RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL
BE ONLY BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF TUCSON SUGGESTS A GREATER RISK OF DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEST. SINCE EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
LIE IN BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST AND THE MOIST AIR TO THE
EAST...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WWUS85 KTWC 201912 CCA
SPSTWC
AZZ019-029>035-210700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1212 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2002

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING TO AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF TUCSON WILL INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR FURTHER WEST WILL DECREASE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC
FORCING ACROSS THE AREA AND AIDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

TO THE EAST OF TUCSON...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING HAS SLOWED SOLAR HEATING. ALTHOUGH THIS
WOULD NORMALLY DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THIS LACK OF HEATING. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY LINE
STRETCHING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM TO FIRE ALONG THIS DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE DEEPER LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES EAST OF TUCSON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...A STRONGER STORM MOTION...TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WILL LIMIT THE TIME THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TO DROP PRECIPITATION IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THEREFORE...THE
PROBABILITY FOR RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL
BE ONLY BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF TUCSON SUGGESTS A GREATER RISK OF DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEST. SINCE EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
LIE IN BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST AND THE MOIST AIR TO THE
EAST...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 134 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:32 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Graham

When: August 20, 5:30 PM MST to 6:30 PM MST
Where: Graham County, Safford
Measured: 57 kt (66 mph)
Property damage: $15,000
Reported by: NEWSPAPER
Coordinates: 32.817, -109.717

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2002 Every state in 2002 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, August 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5312817.