Tornado in Alabama, September 22, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
240 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2002

COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS STORMS LINED UP 40 MILES INLAND DEVELOPING
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST.  EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN DISSIPATING.  EXPECT THE WEAK FRONT
TO SETTLE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH NEXT 18 HOURS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ABOVE 750 MB BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST.  NET RESULT...WE SHOULD
SEE A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW...BUT WILL HANG ON TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  THE SOMEWHAT DRIER TREND WILL HANG ON THROUGH
TUESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS...ISIDORE STILL TRYING TO THROW A
WRENCH IN THE WORKS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  LATEST NHC/HPC
GUIDANCE TRACKS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO LATEST AVN MODEL WHICH HAS
ISIDORE STARTING THE NORTHWARD TURN ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVING
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...AND NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST
ON THURSDAY.  HPC EXTENDED RANGE PROJECTIONS BRING ISIDORE NORTH
THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE
FRI/SAT...A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FASTER AVN.  BASING THE FORECAST ON
THIS SCENARIO...WOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE FORCE
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.  STILL...AS
ISIDORE GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES BY LATE WEEK AND STARTS THE
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION...WOULD EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
AT SOME TIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS.  WILL TRY TO BETTER REFLECT THESE TRENDS IN THE
FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIODS...MATCHING UP WITH THE HPC PROJECTIONS BETTER
WHICH ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE AVN
(WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN A PRETTY GOOD PERFORMER WITH THIS SYSTEM).

MARINEWISE...NOT GOING TO CHANGE TOO MUCH.  WILL LEAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSTED WHERE WE HAVE THEM (BASED ON WAVEHEIGHTS).  SWELLS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN POSSIBLY START
PICKING UP AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND.  STILL DEBATING ON WINDS FOR
TOMORROW AND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL HAVE 20+ KNOTS IN CLOSER TO
SHORE.  COULD DEFINATELY SEE HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND ISIDORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE PAST WEDNESDAY STARTS TO DIMINISH A GOOD BIT.
CHANGES TO THE FORECASTS WILL PROBABLY BE WARRANTED LATER BASED ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ISIDORE.  BEST ADVISE RIGHT NOW IS TO STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS...AND HAVE A PLAN DEVELOPED SHOULD
ACTIONS BECOME NECESSARY LATER ON IN THE WEEK.

/05

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB   71  86  67  86 /  40  20  20  30
PNS   74  88  71  86 /  40  30  30  30
DTS   75  87  72  86 /  40  30  30  30
GZH   68  87  65  85 /  20  20  10  20
2R0   67  87  65  86 /  10  10  10  20
61A   66  85  63  85 /  10  10  10  20

.MOB...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.
MS...NONE.