Flash Flooding and Hail in Virginia, August 4, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2001

GOING FCST GNRLY IN GOOD SHAPE AND EXPECT ONLY SLGT CHANGES MAINLY
TO PRECIP CHCS IN THE EARLY PRDS. ANLYS SHOWING VERY WEAK SFC/85H
FRONT STUCK OVER WRN WVA THIS AFTN WITH HEATING OF SOUPY DEWPT AIR
AND OLD BNDRYS HELPING TO FIRE WDLY SCTD TSRA ATTM. EXPECT BNDRY TO
WASH OUT OVRNGT AS UPR SUPPORT BOTH TO OUR NE AND SW SLOWLY DEPARTS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORN. THIS LEAVES QUEST AS TO LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
POPS MAINLY THIS EVE IN PRESCENCE OF WEAK MCON BUT LTL STEERING
ALOFT. GIVEN BOTH ETA/AVN SHOWING BEST FOCUS ALONG THE
RIDGES...ESPCLY NRN AND SW ZONES CLOSER TO UPR VORTS...WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. AGAIN LOCALIZED FLASH FLDG PSBL BUT APRS
ORGANIZATION OR DURATION NOT ENOUGH FOR A WATCH SO ONLY INCLUDE HVY
RAIN MENTION ATTM. ELSW EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WDLY SCTD ONCE
MOVING E OF THE BLUE RDG WHERE MID LVL SUBSIDENCE REMAINS SO LOW EVE
CHCS IN ORDER. SHOULD SEE MAJ OF CVRG FADE BEFORE MIDNGT WITH CLDNS
AND A GOOD AMT OF FOG ARND TNGT GIVEN DEWPTS AND ESPCLY W WHERE HVR
RAIN OCCURS.

SUNDAY-MON...POP FCST A BIT TRICKY AS 5H HGTS BEGIN TO BUILD AND
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIPS WWD BEHIND DEPARTING CSTL UPR SYS. STILL WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LVL RH ARND AND SOME CAPE/THETA...APRS WONT BE ABLE
TO GO DRY ESPCLY ON THE RIDGES SUNDAY WITH NEXT WEAK S/W ROTATING
THRU IN THE AFTN. THUS WILL CONT RANGE OF CHC POPS...HIGHEST NW NC
TO SLGT CHC ERN VA CTYS OTRW PRTLY SNY/HAZY. MON MAY HAVE THE BEST
SHOT OF SEEING ONLY ISOLD ORGRAPHIC ACTION WITH COMBO OF MORE CAP
ALOFT AND PSBL SUBSIDENCE REGION WELL N OF BARRY BY AFTN. AT THIS PT
PRBLY CAN GO PC SUNDAY NGT AND AT LEAST ERN ZONES WITH ONLY LOW CHCS
UP AGAINST THE RIDGES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO GRDLY INCRS A CAT OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN
SOME 85H WARMING AND PTNL SUBSIDENCE ON MONDAY. WONT GO FOR VRY WARM
MAV NUMBERS FOR NOW WITH SO MUCH HAZE/RH ARND BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH.

EXTENDED...VERY HARD TO PULL POPS AT ANYTIME NOW GIVEN PTNL PER AVN
FOR BARRY REMNANTS TO EVENTUALLY FOLLOW LOW LVL WEAKNESS UP THE WRN
SLOPES BY MID WEEK AND NEXT NRN STREAM FRONT BY THE WEEKEND. THUS
FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO INCLUDE MORE CHCS FOR NEXT SAT FOR NOW.

FCSTID = 10
ROA   67  88  68  90 /  40  20  10  20
LYH   66  86  68  89 /  40  20  10  20
DAN   67  88  69  90 /  30  30  10  20
BLF   65  78  64  81 /  50  30  20  30
LWB   63  77  64  79 /  50  30  20  30
BCB   64  83  64  84 /  40  30  20  30
TNB   65  79  65  81 /  40  40  30  30

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JH

VAZ018>020-023-WVZ044-045-042145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
428 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL...
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS INTO EARLY EVENING.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
TWO INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS.  LOOK FOR THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY TO AFFECT ALLEGHANY
COUNTY...MAINLY FROM COVINGTON WEST TO THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER
THROUGH 5:00 PM...THEN SOUTH INTO CRAIG AND BOTETOURT COUNTIES PRIOR
TO 5:15 PM. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
REMEMBER DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR Y1OUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
ADDITIONAL UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JH