Damaging Wind in Virginia, August 12, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
256 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2001

RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF CONVECTION SLOWLY BREAKING OUT ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM WITH BEST ORGANIZED COVERAGE OVER NRN WVA WITH
S/W AND TO THE SW PER 85H JET. WITH WEAK SFC CD FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE NW AND UPR VORT LOBE NOT PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE MTNS TIL
LATER...SOME QUESTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE ENOUGH CVRG FOR
WDSPRD FLOODING TNGT. GIVEN DIURNAL NATURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
THINK BEST CHCS MNLY THIS EVE ESPCLY WEST WHERE WIND FLDS APR BEST
FOR TRAINING...THEN LINGERING A BIT LONGER OUT EAST AHEAD OF S/W
TROF. SINCE FFA JUST WENT INTO EFFECT AND TSRA IN THE DEVELOPING
STAGES...WILL LEAVE WATCH GOING FOR NOW AND ALLOW EVE SHIFT TO DROP
PENDING HOW FAST TSRA DMNSH LATER ON. OTRW NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING
FCST OVRNGT WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST THIS EVE PER MCON/BETTER INSTAB
AND OVERALL LKLYS SE.

MODELS GNRLY IN LINE WITH INIT FRONT FINALLY GETTING BOOTED EWD
ACROSS THE WRN RIDGES MON MORN AND INTO THE PIEDMONT MON AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING OF NEXT UPSTREAM 5H S/W. APRS BEST SHRA CHCS
MNLY W OF THE BLUE RDG EARLY ON BEFORE 85H FRONT PUSHES BAND OF
DEEPER RH E OF THE MTNS IN THE AFTN. WONT TRY AND TIME AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL LOWER CHCS A NOTCH IN THE NW MON MORN...AND GRDLY INCRS TO
LKLYS SE FOR THE AFTN. SHOULD SLIDE IN BETWEEN DEEP MSTR HEADING TO
THE COAST MON NGT AND APCH OF ACTUAL SECONDARY DEWPT FRONT PROGGED
FOR TUE. MAY LEAVE IN A LOW CHC ERN ZONES MON EVE WITH RH STILL
CLOSE BY EARLY AND WEAKNESS ALONG FRONT OTRW PC NW TO MSTLY CLDY SE
ZONES. TUE...AVN SHOWING BAND OF SHRA ALONG NEXT WEAK FRONT WHILE
ETA DRIER/FASTER WITH SFC RIDGING BUT DEVELOPS UPSLOPE LOW CLDNS NW
NC/SW VA PER LEFTOVER THETA RIDGE. GIVEN LACK OF DEEP RH AND
DOWSLOPE ALOFT WILL TREND TWD THE ETA SOLN AND GO WITH A DRY
SCENARIO FOR NOW WITH A BIT MORE CLDNS SE WVA/NW NC.

MAY BUMP UP TEMPS A CAT E MON/TUE PER MORE SUN OTRW MOS BLEND OK.

EXTENDED...COULD HAVE A BIT MORE UPSLOPE/RETURN RH TO DEAL MID WEEK
BEFORE NEXT WEAK CD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRI SO WILL ADD MORE CLDNS TO
WRN GROUPS EARLY ON. NOGAPS SUGGESTS FRONT A BIT SLOW TO PASS
THROUGH FRI/SAT AND PRBLY ON TRACK GIVEN PROGGED WEAK 5H TROF SO
PLAN TO INCLUDE CHCS SE SAT THEN MNLY CLR SUNDAY AS RIDGE WEDGES SWD.

FCSTID = 10
ROA   70  87  64  85 /  70  50  30  10
LYH   68  86  64  85 /  70  50  30  10
DAN   72  87  69  86 /  70  60  40  10
BLF   66  77  60  75 /  80  30  10  20
LWB   63  76  60  75 /  80  30  10  20
BCB   64  80  64  77 /  70  40  10  20
TNB   65  77  63  76 /  70  50  20  20

.RNK...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

JH