Hail in Texas, September 18, 2001

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
245 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2001

THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...EAST OF CWFA...AND A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN  CONUS. UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS WAS ZONAL. AT 18Z A
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWFA. NORTH OF THE
FRONT LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE ONCE
THEY MOVE EAST ONTO THE LOWER TERRAIN. I WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE THE SFC BNDRY. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE SFC TROUGH
FORMS OVER EASTER NM. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ADVERTING WESTWARD ONTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ETA MODEL SHOWS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 60 HOURS. A SFC LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWFA ON THU WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. ATTM THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF AFTERNOONS.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA. WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS.

PRELIMINARY:
FRI 58/82/59/85 0122  TUL 57/83/58/86 0122  CDS 63/86/64/91 --22
BNF 61/86/64/89 0122  LUB 60/85/63/88 0122  ASP 64/88/65/92 2-22

.LUB...NONE.

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