Damaging Wind in Texas, November 26, 2001

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
216 PM CST MON NOV 26 2001

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS REGION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN VICINITY OF
THETA-E RIDGE...AND ALONG 8H CONVERGENT AXIS WELL DEPICTED BY
AVN. MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVN...PICKING
UP ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION PATTERN...MISSED BY OTHER MODELS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 1000 MB
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG EAST KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...
ARCING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WARM FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF
THE FCST AREA FOLLOWED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. INTERESTING
NOTE...DEW POINTS FELL IN THE MID 30S YESTERDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WE HAVE EFFECTIVELY SEEN A RISE OF 35
DEW POINT DEGREES PLUS OVER 24 HOURS.

FRONT MOVES INTO A SHREVEPORT TO HOUSTON LINE TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
FROM JACKSON TO BEAUMONT BY NOON TUESDAY...THEN STALLS IN THIS
REGION. EXPECTING CURRENT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE AND LIFT INCREASES AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO REGION. SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
PREVALENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...OVERRUNNING TYPE SITUATION
BEHIND WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECTING A VERY SOGGY TUESDAY WITH FRONT BISECTING AREA AND
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO REGION AS
ASSOCIATED WINDS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH MID CONUS TROF
DIGGING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINS IN
A 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY...
EXPECTING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH RRQ OF MID CONUS TROF
APPROACHING AND ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL MAKE
MENTION OF POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINS.

FRONT LINGERS INTO REGION WEDNESDAY WITH AVN CONTINUING TO FORM
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS...TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO COASTAL
LOUISIANA. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS REGION EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A DRYING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AEX 59/63/54/60/40/55/32 6999300
BPT 65/70/57/60/37/56/37 6999300
LCH 67/71/61/65/40/56/36 6999300
LFT 68/74/66/70/50/56/36 6999300

.LCH...NONE.

MARCOTTE

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-271000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
336 PM CST MON NOV 26 2001

...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG STORMS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BECOMING
STATIONARY THROUGH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN EXTREMELY WARM...MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND UP TO 5 INCHES IN STRONGER STORMS. INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO HEAR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION...OR VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARCOTTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
408 PM CST MON NOV 26 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 PM    SPURGER                   TX   .75 INCH HAIL
11/26/01   TYLER                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

FN