Damaging Winds in Texas, May 20 to 21, 2001

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
903 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2001

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 9000 FEET
WERE HELPING TO PROVIDE A DECENT CAP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
EVENING.  FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT CONCERNS THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN SKY CONDITION.

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS
EVIDENT ON THE IR FROM EASTERN OK SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TX.  WE WERE CONCERNED EARLIER THAT TWO STORMS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED
OVER THE CRP AND EWX FORECAST AREAS WOULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE CLL
AREA...HOWEVER THESE STORMS FELL APART.  CLL DID...HOWEVER...
EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE OUTFLOW THIS PAST HOUR.
MODIFYING THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING TO REFLECT THE STORM MOTIONS SHOW THAT
THE LEFT MOVERS SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATE...THOUGH THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE A MUTE POINT FOR SE TX.  THE MESO-ETA LOOKS REASONABLE IN KEEPING
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...WHICH POINTS TOWARD
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TO STAY WEST AS WELL.  FOR NOW THINK THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IS STILL GOOD.  THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW CLOUDS COMING
IN FROM THE GULF TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA ALSO.

WILL KEEP UP THE CAUTION FOR THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS.  THE WINDS
MAY REACH TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE BAYS AND WILL DECIDE ON THIS
BEFORE ISSUING THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST LATER THIS EVENING.  WILL
ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT LATER THIS EVENING CONCERNING THE
EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.

.HGX...SCEC ALL WATERS.

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