Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, April 22 to 23, 2001

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOWN ON LATEST WV LOOP ROTATING OVER EASTERN
CO/NM BORDER MOVING NORTHEAST.  THUNDERSTORMS FIRED OFF ALONG DRYLINE
AS IT MOVED EAST OF MIDLAND INTO THE WESTERN CWFA... SUPPOSEDLY INTO A
LESS CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PER LATEST LAPS... HOWEVER THE INTENSITY
RAPIDLY DIMISHED AND THE LINE FELL APART. LOOKS LIKE ONLY SHOT LEFT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF
THE HEARTLAND LATER THIS EVENING WHERE SHOWALTER PINS A -4 OVER THE
AREA ALONG THE LINE OF BEST BL CONVERGENCE. WINDS WILL DIMISH RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SPINS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM. MODELS SHOWING
EFFECTS OF COOLER AIR SPILLING IN ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH AVN SHOWING
MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN ETA... WILL BUMP AVIATION A FEW DEGREES FOR
TUESDAYS LOW.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PRESSISTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS...
ABI 049/073/042/074 0000
SJT 050/075/045/075 0000
JCT 054/075/047/077 2000

.SJT...HIGH WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES UNTIL 5 PM LDT.

15

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-222000-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
110 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BIG COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING...
THEN MOVE INTO NEBRASKA BY EVENING. A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO A LINE ROUGHLY FROM SONORA TO BAIRD
BY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
DRYLINE...MAINLY EAST OF A STERLING CITY TO ROBY LINE. THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BIG COUNTRY
....WHERE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS THE GREATEST. THE MODERATE
RISK IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ADMIRAL TO CROSS PLAINS LINE. IN
THIS MODERATE RISK AREA...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR...THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE...ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR AS
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO FORMATION...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTY...THERE
IS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED..

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-222000-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
232 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING A DRYLINE INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. SO FAR TODAY...ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED...AS A WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT HAS ACTED AS A CAP AND
PREVENTED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS CAP WEAKENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY
EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO. ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBB(SPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.