Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 16, 2001

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
940 AM CDT MON APR 16 2001

RECENT SFC ANALYSES AND VIS IMAGERY SHOW A NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTER OF SERN TX AT MID MORNING. KHGX AND VIS IMAGERY
INDICATE SHRA/TSRA FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THE MAIN UPDATE ISSUES ARE POPS...SEVERE THREAT...AND TEMPS.
PRESSURE RISES INDICATE THE FRONT MAY HAVE A SMALL SWRD PUSH
TODAY...FUNDAMENTALLY STAYING OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF OUR CWA. POPS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONT AND POINTS SOUTH. WILL INCREASE POPS
IN THESE AREAS AND MODIFY THE POPS AREA BASED ON PROJECTED FRONT
POSITION.

THE 00Z ETA AND 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS CONCUR WITH THE 12Z DRT/LCH
SOUNDINGS IN PORTRAYING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. BOTH THE ETA AND RUC PEG CAPES OF 2000-2500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON IF SFC TEMPS CAN REACH THE LOWER TO MID
80S...ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 M/S. THE SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WBZ AND FRZ HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 10 KFT AND 12
KFT RESPECTIVELY...MID LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK TO MODERATE...AND THERE
IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED DRY LAYER OVER SERN TX (AS OPPOSED TO
THE DRT SOUNDING). THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT IS MINIMALLY SEVERE
HAIL. WILL ADD SEVERE TO THE ZONES AND ISSUE AN HWO/SPS FOR THE
EXPECTED RISK.

TEMPS MAY NOT REACH FORECAST HIGHS DUE TO EARLY AM CONVECTION ALONG
THE UPPER COAST...SO MAY TRIM A BIT THERE...OTHERWISE TEMPS ON TRACK.

.HGX...NONE.

31/47/DO

UPDATE PRELIMS...
CLL BC 083/058 067/048 072 143
IAH BC 083/061 071/048 072 333 HIGHER POPS/LOWER TEMP TODAY
GLS EC 079/066 071/055 070 423 HIGHER POPS TODAY

TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-170000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CDT MON APR 16 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90 EAST OF HOUSTON...
AND U.S. HIGHWAY 290 WEST OF HOUSTON. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF METRO
HOUSTON AND OTHER CITIES SUCH AS RICHMOND/ROSENBERG...GALVESTON...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...WHARTON...EDNA...BAY CITY...AND PALACIOS. THE
MAIN THREAT TIME IS NOON TO 7 PM...AND THE PRINCIPAL SEVERE THREAT IS
LARGE HAIL.

A COLD FRONT ALONG A BRENHAM TO BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL TO LIBERTY
LINE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST END OF THE FRONT AT MID MORNING...
AND MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WIND SHEAR DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE FREEZING ALTITUDE IS
HIGH ENOUGH THAT MINIMALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITEFD...BUT EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR THE LATEST FORECAST...STATEMENTS...AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

31/JWZ