Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, April 15, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
830 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2001

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WIND SHIFT LINE
JUST NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT RUNNING FROM NEAR AUS TO NEAR SAT TO
NEAR DRT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH AND
DAYTIME HEATING ABATES.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND STALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. LOWER DEW-POINTS WILL MAKE FOR
A COOL NIGHT...BUT TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.

WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY CONDITION...TEMPS...WINDS AND
POPS FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PREFER THE SLOWER AVN SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS FCST.  WEAK COLD
FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA ATTM WITH
CONVECTION FIRING OVER EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED FOR THE CWFA.  HOWEVER SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT MONDAY AS SE SFC
FLOW RETURNS BY THE AFTERNOON.  STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA.  WILL NOT MENTION SVR IN ZONE FCST...MAINLY NOCTURNAL
PASSAGE OF FRONT ACROSS THE CWFA MAY PRECLUDE SVR WX DEVELOPMENT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL RESULT TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...ENJOY.  WARM
AND HUMID WX WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.  TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS.

PRELIMS...
AUS 63/81 58/65 46 1145
SAT 66/84 62/69 50 1135
DRT 65/87 65/71 52 0045

.EWX...NONE.

TXZ184>187-189-202>207-221-160200-

HAZARADOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
552 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 6 PM AND 7 PM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO THE AREA ALONG
HIGHWAY 90 BETWEEN UVALDE AND SAN ANTONIO BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9 PM.

DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THE AIR IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH SO THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME LARGE HAIL.

THIS OUTLOOK APPLIES TO FOLLOWING SPECIFIC COUNTIES...
COMAL...MEDINA...KENDALL...WILSON...REAL...KERR...BEXAR...BANDERA...
EDWARDS...KINNEY...GUADALUPE AND UVALDE.

SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS THE THREATENED AREA.

&&

FOR INFORMATION ON WEATHER THREATS IN SURROUNDING AREAS...REFER
TO OUTLOOKS FROM OFFICES IN MIDLAND...SAN ANGELO...FORT WORTH...
HOUSTON/GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
806 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0725 PM    TARPLEY                   TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/15/01   BANDERA                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0728 PM    TARPLEY                   TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/15/01   BANDERA                        REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER

DC