Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, July 17, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2001

ON THE MORNING WEATHER MAP...STNRY FRONTAL SYS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...WILL TAKE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FRONT
SHLD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND S NJ WED
MRNG...THEN WILL BECOME STNRY THAT REGION INTO LATE WED NGT. LOW
PRES MVG THRU OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME STNRY VACAPES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO GOING VERTICAL WITH DVLPG UPPER LVL LOW PRES.

FA WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LVL SYS INTO THU. CURRENT UPPER
LOW CNTRD JUST N OF NY STATE...WITH SFC LOW REFLECTION...MOVES THRU
THE MARITIMES WED WITH A SHARPENING LONG WAVE XTNDG FM IT ACROSS THE
FA INTO DVLPG VERTICAL LOW VCNTY VACAPES ON THUR.

CLDS: INCRSG CLOUDINESS THIS EVE...THEN CLDS REMAINING ACROSS FA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PCPN: INCRG CHC SHWRS/TSTMS FM TNGT INTO THUR...WITH A MORE LIKELY
CHC EARLIER NORTHERN FA WITH OVRNG OF FNT...THEN MORE LIKELY CHC
MOVG S THRU FA AS FNT MOVES S. EXACT PLACEMENT OF VACAPES REGION
STACKED LOW WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR CHC HVIER RAINFALL FM SE NJ INTO
THE DELMARVA.

WINDS: WILL REMAIN SW AHEAD OF THE FRNT...THEN GO PRIMARILY NE
BEHIND THE FRONT. MRNG GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PSBLTY OF A NE 25 TO 35 KT
BNDRY LYR WIND SETTING UP OVR SOUTHERN MARINE REGION AS VERTICAL SYS
DVLPS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS TIME OF THE FRI NEW MOON IS
APPROACHING...WITH DEPARTURES THIS LUNA PERIOD ONE OF IF NOT THE
HIGHEST OF THE YEAR.

ON THE MARINE: MARINE FCSTR MENTIONS THAT SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
THUR ATTM FOR DVLPG VACAPES SYS.

.PHIy...NONE.

WOODWORTH