Flash Flood in Pennsylvania, August 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
900 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2001

THE DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT 1 HAS SETTLED INTO CTP AND TSRA ACTIVITY
HAS DIMINISHED. THE REMAINING ACTIVITY NEAR THE NY BORDER WILL DSPT
AFTER SS. THE DYING SHRA OVR BEDFORD COUNTY WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME
THIS AFD HITS THE STREET.

FRONT 2 HAS HAD A HARD TIME WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS 80 DEGREE LAKE
ERIE BUT APPRS TO HAVE ARRIVED AT ERIE AS OF 23Z AFTER A 5 HOUR TRIP
FROM THE NORTH SHORE. THE FRONT HAS YET TO PASS BUF AFTER PASSING
YYZ AROUND 18Z.

THE SFC HI DRIVING THE FRONT IS NEAR MSP THIS EVE AND DRIFTING SE.
BY AM THE SFC HI SHOULD BE NEAR MKE. THIS LACK OF AMBITION WILL PROB
RESULT IN THE DEWPTS HANGING UP TONITE. PERHAPS EVEN DRIFTING UP
FROM WHERE THEY ARE THIS EVE BETWEEN THE ALLEGHENIES AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA. SINCE THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY STRONG BREEZES WITH
THIS FRONT I WOULD EXPECT SOME PRETTY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING...ESP
IN AREAS THAT HAVE HAD RAIN DURG THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DURG TUE THE SLO DRYING SHUD CONT. THE ETA AND NGM SHOW LOTS OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BLO 700MB AND WITH HGTS LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
IN A WHILE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHRAS POP UP IN THE
SUSQ VAL AND POINTS E AFTER 18Z TUE DURG PEAK HEATING HRS. I WILL
NOT ADD A POP NOW BUT MIDNIGHT MAN MAY WANT TO PUT IN A 20 POP FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES SINCE IT WILL BE 1ST PERIOD FOR HIM.

THE 50H TROF STALLS NEAR THE COAST AND THIS SLOWS AND WEAKENS THE
SFC HI AS IT MOVES OVR PA. SO A LOT OF MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS
TAKES PLACE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR FA. ANYONE HOPING FOR COOL CRISP
POLAR AIR WILL BE DISAPPOINTED. DEWPTS PROB WILL NOT DROP BLO 50 E
OF THE MTNS AND PROB WILL NOT EVEN GET DOWN TO 60 IN THE LWR SUSQ.

BY WED AFTN...A SW FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WEAK HI ALG THE COAST
AND THE DEVELOPING SHRA SYSTEM OVR THE MS VAL. THIS WILL RETURN THE
UGLY MUGGIES TO PA BY THU. SO OUR COOLEST AFTN SHUD BE TUE AND OUR
COOLEST MORNING WED.

FORTUNATELY THIS TIME THE MIDWEST SYSTEM SHUD BE HERE FRI. IF THE
AVN IS CORRECT WITH THE TIMING...THE AREAS THAT NEED THE RAIN THE
MOST WILL NOT GET IT. THE FRONT WILL BE THRU MOST OF THE RDG/VAL
AREA BY 18Z WITH FROPA AT BFD JST UNV AND AOO DURG THE DIURNAL MIN
FOR TSRA.

AS HAS HAPPENED WITH OUR 2 PREVIOUS FRONTS...THE FRI SYSTEM APPRS
HEADED FOR A STALLING PERIOD ALG THE COAST. THE NEXT S/W MOVG SE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA MAY TRIGGER A WAVE ALG THE FRONT THAT COULD DUMP
MORE RAIN ALG THE SOGGY SE AREAS OF OUR FA FRI NITE AND EARLY SAT.

THE REST OF US WILL HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME RAIN SAT AFTN FROM A
MOISTURE STARVED BUT VERY IMPRESSIVE STRONG S/W MOVG ACRS THE LAKES
AND UP THE ST LAWRENCE VAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS YOU CAN TELL BY THE LENGTH OF THIS PRODUCT...WE ARE HAVING A MUCH
QUIETER NIGHT THAN THE LAST 3 EVENINGS HAVE BEEN.
WILL UPDATE TO TAKE OUT EVENING WORDING.

CTP...NONE.

HEAD