Wildfire in Oregon, August 12, 2001

SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2001

12Z ETA/MESOETA/NGM/AVN IN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE JUST OFF THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST.  PVA WITH THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
SURFACE HEATING TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF
SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DRY...SO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON EXCEPT FOR THE COAST.  THE LIFTED INDEX PATTERNS INDICATE THAT
THE EAST SIDE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST BEYOND THIS EVENING AND INTO
MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THERE.

THE ETA HOLDS ON TO THE INSTABILITY A BIT LONGER AND EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME WEAK ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AVIATION HAS BEEN THE
BETTER MODEL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO WITH THAT SCENARIO.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE WHOLE SHOW WILL BE OVER BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
LAST WAVE EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING A TRAIL OF NVA BEHIND IT.

ONCE THE WAVE LEAVES...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDING OVER THE AREA.  AT LOW LEVELS A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.  EXPECT THE
MARINE LAYER TO QUICKLY REESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME TEMPERATURE CHANGES.  WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.  SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FINALLY MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST...PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE CASCADES THAT DAY AS WELL.

STOCKTON

.MFR...RED FLAG WARNING...FIRE ZONES 616/617/619-625 FOR DRY
                          LIGHTNING.

OTH BB 055/068 054/068 054 151000
4BK BB 054/067 053/067 053 151000
RBG BB 059/089 056/091 057 152000
MFR UU 060/093 057/095 058 153000
LMT BU 050/085 047/087 049 153310
LKV BU 049/085 046/087 048 153310
MHS UU 051/085 048/088 049 153000