Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, February 24, 2001

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

ACTIVE WX PATTERN TODAY.  CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER NE
OK.  FA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WILL SOME MESONET
SITES APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN EAST-CENTRAL OK.  WITH ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TODAY WILL CONTINUE WITH FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. GIVEN GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED WITH LOW FFG
VALUES...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.  STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF SFC LOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT WIND ADVISORY.

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OK
ATTM.  TSTM LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW
BECOME NEG TILTED OVER OK.  IMPRESSIVE UVV'S FORECAST OVER AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH 130 KT SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO FA BY MID MORNING...
MOVING THROUGH REMAINDER OF AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
INSTABILITIES AXIS FORECAST ALONG PACIFIC FRONT/DRY LINE (1500-2000
J/KG) WITH SOME VEERING OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SVR LEWP WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES HOWEVER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY
DEVIATING/MERGING CELLS WITHIN LINE. TSTMS WILL MOVE EAST OF FA BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NW ARK ZONES 2ND PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION ON SUNDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST
ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING BACK UP.  STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUE WITH AVN TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
FROZEN PRECIP INTO WED.  84HR ETA A LITTLE WARMER IN COMPARISON...
WILL STILL HOWEVER LOWER TEMPS SOME IN THE EXTENDED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE TUE/WED.

FCSTID = 12

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TUL TB 066/035 054/038 060 +10
FSM TB 068/039 056/037 061 +30
MLC TB 067/037 056/040 062 +10
BVO TB 065/034 053/037 060 +10
FYV TB 064/036 051/035 057 +30
BYV TB 064/036 050/034 057 +30
MIO TB 065/035 051/035 058 +10
MKO TB 067/035 054/039 061 +10
F10 TB 067/038 058/043 064 +10
HHW TB 070/040 059/044 065 +10

.TSA...
.AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ZONES
1-2-10-11-19-20-29.
.OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ZONES 49-53-54>76.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDDAY
OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THERE IS
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS MORNING AND IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING.  A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING DOWN TOWARD THE EASTERN
PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  A WARM FRONT
WAS ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER.  EARLY THIS MORNING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY ONGOING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.  AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS TODAY THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS WITH
THE DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA.  MEANWHILE...THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.  THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TODAY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS.  THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE AND THE WARM FRONT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC SUNDAY

THREAT AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...80
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...60

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN
PERCENT.  SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/
TORNADO DAMAGE AND/OR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY HAVE PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH /OKCFFATUL/ FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR TODAY.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM HAVE ALSO
PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY /OKCNPWTUL/ FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR TODAY.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
 WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA